Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 231936
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-061945-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS UNCHANGED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A FAIRLY WET SEPTEMBER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...OCTOBER
HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING
MONTHLY RAINFALL DEFICITS. RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE SHOWN
RISES WITH THE RAINFALL EVENTS WE EXPERIENCED IN SEPTEMBER AND
CURRENTLY HAVE AT LEAST LOW FLOWS. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS HAVE
CONTINUED TO SHOW DECLINES IN LEVELS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
LIGHTER OR ABSENT. IN AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RAINFALL LAKES
HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASES. MANY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE RAINFALL
DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE AND RAINFALL NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR
LATE OCTOBER. SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING WATER RESTRICTIONS AND
COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE
HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS
AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE
CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 60 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL
NINO EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID OCTOBER 21ST AND ISSUED ON
OCTOBER 23RD INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2)
DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY REMAIN IN
EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 49 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF OCTOBER 23RD...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 8
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
COMAL
DEWITT
KERR
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KINNEY
BURNET     LAVACA
CALDWELL   LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA
HAYS

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE OCTOBER 23RD COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

300-400     400-500     500-600   600-700

GILLESPIE   BASTROP     ATASCOSA  BEXAR
LEE         BLANCO      BANDERA   MEDINA
LLANO       BURNET      COMAL
TRAVIS      CALDWELL    DEWITT
WILLIAMSON  DIMMIT      FRIO
            EDWARDS     KARNES
            FAYETTE     KENDALL
            GONZALES    LAVACA
            HAYS        MAVERICK
            KERR        UVALDE
            KINNEY      WILSON
            REAL        ZAVALA
            VAL VERDE
            WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON OCTOBER 21 2014 INDICATED...FALL CONDITIONS WERE
ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT THE WARMER WEATHER HELPED GROW SOME MUCH
NEEDED GRASS FOR GRAZING. RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN VERY GOOD
SHAPE. HOWEVER...THERE WERE MAJOR OUTBREAKS OF ARMYWORMS IN SMALL
GRAIN AND IMPROVED PASTURES. WHITE GRUBS ALSO INFESTED SOME NEWLY
PLANTED SMALL GRAIN FIELDS. LOTS OF WINTER WEEDS EMERGED AFTER
EARLIER RAINS. THE CONDITION OF WILDLIFE AND LIVESTOCK WAS ON THE
UPSWING. QUAIL NUMBERS AND DEER ANTLER GROWTH LOOKED GOOD.
HOWEVER...DEER BODY CONDITION SCORES WERE BELOW NORMAL BUT IMPROVING.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT OCTOBER 22, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      28.39       27.88       +0.51         102%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  20.52       28.39       -7.87          72%
SAN ANTONIO       18.46       27.01       -8.55          68%
DEL RIO           12.64       17.53       -4.89          72%

FOR OCTOBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 1.24 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.58 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.82 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER TO DATE IS 75.2 DEGREES. THIS
IS 2.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 73.0 DEGREES.

FOR OCTOBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.62 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 2.42 INCHES BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 3.04 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR OCTOBER TO DATE IS
77.0 DEGREES. THIS IS 4.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 72.4
DEGREES.

FOR OCTOBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 1.55 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.25 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 2.80 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR OCTOBER TO DATE
IS 75.1 DEGREES. THIS IS 2.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF
72.5 DEGREES.

FOR OCTOBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 1.75 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.00 INCH BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 2.75 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR OCTOBER TO DATE IS 72.6
DEGREES. THIS IS 2.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 70.5 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED OCTOBER 22 AND VALID OCTOBER 30 THROUGH NOVEMBER 5 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2014 THROUGH JANUARY
2015...CREATED ON OCTOBER 16TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS
FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON NOVEMBER 20 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED IN MOST AREAS...
BUT MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE.
THE LACK OF  RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO FALL.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. THE UPPER COLORADO...THE UPPER GUADALUPE AND
SAN ANTONIO BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES. THE LOWER COLORADO...THE LOWER GUADALUPE...MEDINA...
FRIO...AND NUECES BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT)
STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 23RD...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1084.2           -32.8
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                975.6           -88.6
CANYON LAKE          909                  897.2           -11.8
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  775.6           -15.4
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  986.4           -33.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  623.4           -57.6

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 630 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
4 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
40 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   OCTOBER   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 629.3 FT      640.0 FT    -10.7 FT    663.8 FT     -34.5 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 4
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND NOVEMBER 6 2014 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$








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