Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 291735
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-121745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1135 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

JANUARY WAS PREDOMINANTLY CLOUDY AND COLD...ESPECIALLY THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MONTH. BY THE THIRD WEEK TEMPERATURES MODERATED. WE
SAW PRECIPITATION SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE MONTH AND THIS PROVIDED
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WERE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS WERE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. AFTER A WET PERIOD TO END JANUARY AND
START THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE BEEN ABOVE AVERAGE WILL
FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN. EVEN SNOW WAS REPORTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY WITH THE SYSTEM
THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION ON JANUARY 21ST-23RD. COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL HELPED TO REDUCE EVAPORATION RATES AND
WE CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR RUNOFF DURING RAINFALL EVENTS. LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS...HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT INCREASES. SHORT TERM DROUGHT
CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE REMAINING IMPACTS
BEING WATER RESTRICTIONS AND A FEW COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS. RANCHERS
ARE REPORTING STOCK TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE RAINFALL THIS
WINTER. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 50-
60 PERCENT
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT TWO
MONTHS THEN RETURN TO AN ENSO NEUTRAL PATTERN. EL NINO LIKE
IMPACTS ARE NOW BEING FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JANUARY 27TH AND ISSUED ON
JANUARY 29TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0)
TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 39 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF JANUARY 28TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BURNET     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
COMAL      LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE JANUARY 28TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400     400-500

BASTROP     BURNET      ATASCOSA    DIMMIT
BEXAR       DEWITT      BANDERA     FRIO
BLANCO      KINNEY      EDWARDS
CALDWELL    LLANO       KARNES
COMAL       UVALDE      KERR
FAYETTE                 MAVERICK
GILLESPIE               MEDINA
GONZALES                REAL
GUADALUPE               VAL VERDE
HAYS                    ZAVALA
KENDALL
LAVACA
LEE
TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
INDICATED THE REGION HAD 1 INCH TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH THE MORE
WESTERN COUNTIES RECEIVING SOME SNOW AND FREEZING PRECIPITATION.
SOIL MOISTURE WAS SURPLUS IN SOME AREAS. OVERALL...OATS AND WHEAT
WERE LOOKING GOOD...THOUGH THERE WERE SOME REPORTS OF RUST AND
GREEN BUGS. STOCK TANKS AND STREAMS NEEDED RUNOFF BEFORE SPRING
GREEN UP. LIVESTOCK CONTINUED TO BE IN FAIR CONDITION AND UNDER
SUPPLEMENTATION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT JANUARY 28, 2015 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       4.71        2.02       +2.69         233%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   5.02        2.05       +2.97         245%
SAN ANTONIO        3.38        1.58       +1.80         214%
DEL RIO            0.43        0.65       -0.22          66%

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.43 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.22 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.65 OF AN INCH.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 48.4 DEGREES. THIS
IS 3.6 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 52.0 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 3.38 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.80 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 1.58 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 48.5 DEGREES. THIS IS
3.1 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.6 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 4.71 INCHES OF
RAIN. THIS IS 2.69 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.02 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 47.7
DEGREES. THIS IS 3.7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.4 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 5.02 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 2.97 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL
OF 2.05 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 45.1 DEGREES. THIS IS
4.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 49.1 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JANUARY 28 AND VALID FEBRUARY 5 THROUGH FEBRUARY 11 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2015 THROUGH APRIL 2015...
CREATED ON JANUARY 15TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SEEN ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR
JANUARY. THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS ARE ONE AREA THAT HAS SEEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION FOR JANUARY. THE CONTINUED LACK OF
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OR RISE SLIGHTLY. RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE STARTED CAUSE
SMALL INCREASES ON MOST AREA LAKES. IT WILL TAKE MANY RAINFALL
EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE ABOVE NORMAL (76-90 PERCENT)
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL (>90 PERCENT) ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
COLORADO AND UPPER AND MIDDLE SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE
GUADALUPE...MEDINA AND RIO GRANDE BASINS REPORTED NORMAL
(25-75 PERCENT) FLOWS. THE NUECES AND FRIO BASINS REPORTED MUCH
BELOW (<10 PERCENT) TO BELOW NORMAL (10-20 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JANUARY 29TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1087.8           -29.2
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.6           -89.6
CANYON LAKE          909                 897.5           -11.5
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 781.0           -10.0
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 986.9           -33.1
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 624.8           -56.2

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   JANUARY   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 644.6 FT      642.9 FT     +1.7 FT    669.2 FT     -26.6 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND FEBRUARY 12 2015 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$







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