Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 041805
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-181815-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1205 PM CST THU DEC 4 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS UNCHANGED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

NOVEMBER ONLY HAD TWO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS YET MOST LOCATIONS
SAW ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. THE MONTH ALSO SAW A
COUPLE OF STRONG COLD FRONTS AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER SO
TEMPERATURES WERE WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE MONTH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL HELPED TO REDUCE EVAPORATION RATES AND
WE ACTUALLY SAW RUNOFF AND LAKES AND RESERVOIRS SAW SMALL RISES IN
THE LEVELS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL REPORTING DEFICITS FOR THE
YEAR TO DATE. RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE SHOWN RISES WITH
THESE RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ARE LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE MOST ANY TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY DECEMBER. RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
SHOWN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING WATER
RESTRICTIONS AND A FEW COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS. RANCHERS ARE
REPORTING STOCK TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE RAINFALL. LONG TERM
DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR
DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA
AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID DECEMBER 2ND AND ISSUED ON
DECEMBER 4TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT
(D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3)
DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 43 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF DECEMBER 4TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BURNET     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
COMAL      LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE DECEMBER 4TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400     400-500

HAYS        BASTROP     BEXAR       ATASCOSA
LEE         BLANCO      EDWARDS     BANDERA
TRAVIS      BURNET      GONZALES    DEWITT
WILLIAMSON  CALDWELL    GUADALUPE   DIMMIT
            COMAL       KENDALL     FRIO
            FAYETTE     KERR        KARNES
            GILLESPIE   KINNEY      MAVERICK
            LLANO       LAVACA      ZAVALA
                        MEDINA
                        REAL
                        UVALDE
                        VAL VERDE
                        WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON DECEMBER 2 2014 WAS NOT AVAILABLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT DECEMBER 3, 2014
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      34.47       32.15       +2.32         107%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  27.35       33.16       -5.81          82%
SAN ANTONIO       26.96       30.53       -3.57          88%
DEL RIO           15.90       18.93       -3.03          84%

FOR DECEMBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.06 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.06 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR DECEMBER TO DATE IS 52.5 DEGREES. THIS IS
2.2 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 54.7 DEGREES.

FOR DECEMBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.17 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 0.17 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR DECEMBER TO DATE IS 52.5 DEGREES. THIS
IS 2.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.3 DEGREES.

FOR DECEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS
0.23 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.23 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR DECEMBER TO DATE IS 50.5 DEGREES.
THIS IS 4.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.0 DEGREES.

FOR DECEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.26 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 0.26 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR DECEMBER TO DATE IS 51.0 DEGREES.
THIS IS 2.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 53.0 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW
AVERAGE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED DECEMBER 3 AND VALID DECEMBER 11 THROUGH DECEMBER 17 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2014 THROUGH FEBRUARY
2015...CREATED ON NOVEMBER 20TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS
FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON DECEMBER 18 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED IN MOST AREAS...
BUT MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE.
THE LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO REMAIN
NEARLY STEADY WITH LOWER EVAPORATION RATES. RAINFALL EVENTS ARE
STARTING TO CAUSE SMALL INCREASES ON MOST AREA LAKES. IT WILL TAKE
MANY RAINFALL EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL
CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE...COLORADO AND MIDDLE SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE
NUECES BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES. THE GUADALUPE...UPPER AND LOWER SAN ANTONIO...MEDINA AND
FRIO BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT)
STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF DECEMBER 4TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1086.9           -30.1
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                975.1           -89.1
CANYON LAKE          909                  897.0           -12.0
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  777.7           -13.3
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  986.4           -33.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  623.6           -58.0

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   NOVEMBER   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 636.2 FT      642.0 FT     -5.8 FT    668.4 FT     -32.2 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND DECEMBER 18 2014 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$







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