Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 261810
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-101815-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
110 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS RAINFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

THE RAINFALL RALLY THAT BEGAN THE SECOND WEEK OF JUNE CONTINUES.
MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AT LEAST A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAIN
OVER THE PAST TWO WEEKS. A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN AS MUCH AS 10
TO 15 INCHES IN LESS THAN A 24-HOUR PERIOD. FOR A CHANGE EVEN THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS HAVE ENJOYED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. RUNOFF PRODUCED
FROM THESE RAINFALL EVENTS HAS MOST CREEKS AND STREAMS SHOWING NEAR
NORMAL FLOWS FOR LATE JUNE. LAKES ACROSS THE EAST HAVE HELD STEADY
OR SEEN SMALL RISES...WHILE LAKE AMISTAD SAW A RISE OF NEARLY 5
FEET DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT WATERSHED. RAINFALL FOR
JUNE TO DATE IS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW
LOCATIONS STILL HAVE MONTHLY DEFICITS. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW LATE JUNE AVERAGES AND THERE WILL
BE SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE DUE
TO THE RECENT RAINFALL. CURRENTLY THE MAIN SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. RANCHERS ARE
REPORTING STOCK TANKS DID SHOW INCREASES AND MANY ARE NOW FULL.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED WITH THE WETTING RAINFALL. IN
AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAINFALL FIRE DANGERS CONTINUE AT
ELEVATED LEVELS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND
AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE
TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SUMMER. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE AN EL NINO
EVENT DEVELOPING IN THE SUMMER AND AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EL
NINO EVENT DURING THE WINTER. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO
EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...
SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS
WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JUNE 24TH AND ISSUED ON JUNE
26TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENTS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO PLAINS. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO
SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
STILL IN EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 69 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND FIVE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF JUNE 26TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 4
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA  FAYETTE      LAVACA
BANDERA   FRIO         LLANO
BASTROP   GILLESPIE    LEE
BLANCO    GONZALES     MAVERICK
BURNET    GUADALUPE    MEDINA
CALDWELL  HAYS         REAL
COMAL     KARNES       TRAVIS
DEWITT    KENDALL      WILLIAMSON
DIMMIT    KERR         ZAVALA
EDWARDS   KINNEY

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE JUNE 26TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200         200-300    300-400    400-500

BURNET        ATASCOSA   COMAL      BANDERA
DEWITT        BASTROP    DIMMIT     FRIO
KARNES        BEXAR      MAVERICK   MEDINA
KINNEY        BLANCO     UVALDE     ZAVALA
LLANO         CALDWELL   VAL VERDE
TRAVIS        EDWARDS
WILSON        FAYETTE
              GILLESPIE
              GONZALES
              GUADALUPE
              HAYS
              KENDALL
              KERR
              LAVACA
              LEE
              REAL
              WILLIAMSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON JUNE 24 2014 INDICATED...WARM WEATHER AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS PROMOTED THE GROWTH OF ROW CROPS AND PASTURES.
THE MOISTURE ALSO MEANT THAT PRODUCERS HAD TO CONTEND WITH LATE
FLUSHES OF WEEDS AND INVASIVE SPECIES. AFTER 3 TO 14 INCHES OF
RAIN...THERE WAS MINOR FLOODING. IN THE HILL COUNTRY...SEVERAL
HUNDRED GOATS WERE LOST DUE TO HIGH WATER. HAY HARVESTING
CONTINUED. COTTON AND SORGHUM PLANTING WAS RUNNING STRONG.
LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE REMAINED IN GOOD CONDITION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT JUNE 25, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      14.15       17.37        -3.22          81%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  13.48       15.66        -2.18          86%
SAN ANTONIO       12.62       15.51        -2.89          81%
DEL RIO            6.04        9.24        -3.20          65%

FOR JUNE TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 4.69 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 2.65 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.04 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 85.7 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.8 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 83.9 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
5.26 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.72 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 3.54
INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 83.0 DEGREES. THIS IS 0.8 OF A DEGREE
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.2 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 3.07 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.77 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 3.84 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 81.6
DEGREES. THIS IS 0.2 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 81.8 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.95 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL
OF OF 3.61 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 81.4 DEGREES. THIS IS
0.6 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.8 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR MORE
RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JUNE 25 AND VALID JULY 3 THROUGH JULY 9 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 2014 THROUGH OCTOBER 2014...
CREATED ON JUNE 19TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON JULY 17 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW IMPROVEMENTS
DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A
DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. LAKE LEVELS HAVE RISEN OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS. WITH EVAPORATION RATES GOING UP DUE TO INCREASING
TEMPERATURES THE GAINS WE HAVE SEEN WILL TURN INTO LOSSES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE UPPER COLORADO...SAN ANTONIO...MEDINA...FRIO...NUECES AND
RIO GRANDE BASINS. THE GUADALUPE BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE LOWER COLORADO BASIN
REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 26TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1075.5           -41.5
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                979.8           -84.4
CANYON LAKE          909                  900.8            -8.2
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  775.8           -15.2
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  990.6           -29.4
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  630.1           -50.9

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
35 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    JUNE    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     JUNE AVG      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 639.4 FT  663.0 FT    -23.6 FT        646.8 FT     -7.4 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20 PERCENT
REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
DEL RIO                   STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND JULY 10 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$









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