Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 041745
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-181745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1245 PM CDT THU SEP 4 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN THE SAME OVER THE PAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER AN AUGUST THAT FEATURED SPORADIC RAINFALL...SEPTEMBER HAS SEEN
SPOTTY RAINFALL WITH THE MAJORITY OF RAIN FALLING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. MOST
RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUED TO SHOW DECREASING FLOWS
ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE MISSED THE RECENT RAINFALL. THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS REPORTING BELOW AVERAGE STREAM
FLOWS WHILE THE EASTERN HALF REPORTED BELOW TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
FLOWS. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECLINES IN
LEVELS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT OR ABSENT. MANY LOCATIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER AVERAGES
AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. SHORT
TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE RETURNED IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE
LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. CURRENTLY THE MAIN
SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE WATER RESTRICTIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS. LONG
TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE
YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY
LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT
RAINFALL EVENTS. THERE ARE A FEW LAKES THAT ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CONSERVATION POOL IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE FREQUENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST MONTH.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA
AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID SEPTEMBER 2ND AND ISSUED ON
SEPTEMBER 4TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
OVER THE PAST WEEK. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
(D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT
STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY ARE IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS. A SMALL AREA OF
THE HILL COUNTRY REMAINS IN EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 61 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE TO HIGH. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL REMAIN HIGH.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 4TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR
19 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
BLANCO
BURNET
CALDWELL
COMAL
DEWITT
FAYETTE
GONZALES
GUADALUPE
HAYS
KENDALL
KERR
LLANO
MEDINA
TRAVIS
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA    KINNEY
BASTROP    LAVACA
DIMMIT     LEE
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FRIO       REAL
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
KARNES     ZAVALA

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE SEPTEMBER 4TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

400-500   500-600          600-700          700-800

EDWARDS   BANDERA    ATASCOSA   GUADALUPE   COMAL
REAL      GILLESPIE  BASTROP    HAYS
UVALDE    KERR       BEXAR      KARNES
          KINNEY     BLANCO     KENDALL
          LLANO      BURNET     LAVACA
          MEDINA     CALDWELL   LEE
          VAL VERDE  DEWITT     MAVERICK
                     DIMMIT     TRAVIS
                     FAYETTE    WILLIAMSON
                     FRIO       WILSON
                     GONZALES   ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON SEPTEMBER 2 2014 INDICATED...THERE WERE SPOTTY
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION...THOUGH GENERALLY HOT...DRY WEATHER
CONTINUED. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN WAS
FORECAST. GRASSES WENT INTO DORMANCY DUE TO THE HEAT. CORN AND
GRAIN SORGHUM WERE BEING HARVESTED...AND COTTON WAS OPENING BOLLS.
OVERALL...LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE WERE IN GOOD CONDITION FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER. MORE RAINFALL WAS NEEDED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST ISOLATED RAINFALL CHANCES.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT SEPTEMBER 3, 2014
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      19.87       22.42        -2.55          89%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  15.55       23.35        -7.80          67%
SAN ANTONIO       16.18       21.25        -5.07          76%
DEL RIO            7.17       13.77        -6.60          52%

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.26 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.26 OF AN INCH.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 87.7 DEGREES.
THIS IS 3.7 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 84.0 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.11 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.20 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 0.31 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 88.3
DEGREES. THIS IS 5.0 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 83.3 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.01 OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.32 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.33 OF AN INCH.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 88.5
DEGREES. THIS IS 4.5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 84.0 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.25 OF AN INCH BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 86.7
DEGREES. THIS IS 5.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 81.4 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST ISOLATED RAINFALL CHANCES.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED SEPTEMBER 3 AND VALID SEPTEMBER 11 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 17
WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER
2014...CREATED ON AUGUST 21ST WAS INDICATING NO STRONG SIGNALS
FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WHICH
INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THE OUTLOOKS WERE INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON
SEPTEMBER 18 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

AFTER A FEW MONTHS OF IMPROVEMENTS...THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE DUE TO LESS RAINFALL IN MANY
AREAS. MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE.
THE LACK OF RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR
FALL. WITH EVAPORATION RATES REMAINING HIGH THESE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. THE UPPER SAN ANTONIO...THE UPPER
COLORADO... MEDINA AND FRIO BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10-24
PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE LOWER COLORADO AND GUADALUPE
BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) STREAM
FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF SEPTEMBER 4TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1075.4           -41.6
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                977.1           -87.1
CANYON LAKE          909                  898.3           -10.7
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  774.9           -16.1
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  987.4           -32.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  623.6           -57.4

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 630 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
4 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
40 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 626.4 FT      631.5 FT     -5.1 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 4
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2
DEL RIO                   STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND SEPTEMBER 18 2014 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$







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