Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

000
AXUS74 KEWX 140339
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-280345-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1039 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOW SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS GET WORSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
HILL COUNTRY...

SYNOPSIS...

WITH A COUPLE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE FIRST TWO
WEEKS OF MARCH RAINFALL TOTALS IN MANY LOCATIONS HAVE SURPASSED
THE AMOUNT THAT MANY LOCATIONS HAD SEEN OVER THE PAST MONTH TO
MONTH AND A HALF. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN ALL THAT HEAVY IN
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MORE THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS.
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS WELL. THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WITH A FEW COLDER THAN AVERAGE DAYS THROWN IN. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE WITH TOTALS GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH. SHORT TERM
DROUGHT IMPACTS REMAIN AT A MINIMUM IN MANY LOCATIONS. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING DUE TO GRASSES THAT HAVE DRIED DUE
TO RECENT FREEZES AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
REGION. LONG TERM IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SPRING 2014. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE AN EL NINO EVENT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL
NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO
WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL
TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MARCH 11TH AND ISSUED ON
MARCH 13TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE WORSE
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE
LAST WEEK AND HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) STATUS. THERE
CONTINUED TO BE POCKETS OF EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS THE HILL COUNTRY... MAINLY IN
GILLESPIE...KERR...BANDERA AND MEDINA COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY 63 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND ONE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS
NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF MARCH 13TH...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 9 COUNTIES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN
BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
BLANCO
GILLESPIE
KENDALL
LLANO
TRAVIS
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA     EDWARDS      KINNEY
BANDERA      FAYETTE      LAVACA
BASTROP      FRIO         LEE
BURNET       GONZALES     MAVERICK
CALDWELL     GUADALUPE    MEDINA
COMAL        HAYS         REAL
DEWITT       KARNES       WILLIAMSON
DIMMIT       KERR         ZAVALA

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE MARCH 13TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300    300-400    400-500

BASTROP     BLANCO     BEXAR      ATASCOSA
CALDWELL    BURNET     DEWITT     BANDERA
FAYETTE     COMAL      EDWARDS    FRIO
GONZALES    DIMMIT     GILLESPIE  KARNES
HAYS        GUADALUPE  KERR       MEDINA
LAVACA      KENDALL    KINNEY
LEE         REAL       LLANO
TRAVIS                 MAVERICK
WILLIAMSON             UVALDE
                       VAL VERDE
                       WILSON
                       ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL WAS NOT AVAILABLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...WITH A FEW DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE THROWN IN.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT MARCH 12, 2014
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       2.02        5.30        -3.28          38%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   2.23        5.61        -3.38          40%
SAN ANTONIO        1.26        4.46        -3.20          28%
DEL RIO            0.44        2.06        -1.62          21%

FOR MARCH TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.22 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.24 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.46 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 58.0
DEGREES. THIS IS 3.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 61.8 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.61 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.30 OF AN INCH BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 0.91 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 54.1 DEGREES. THIS
IS 5.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 59.9 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 1.19 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.13 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.06 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MARCH TO DATE IS
53.0 DEGREES. THIS IS 6.4 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF
59.4 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 1.14 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.13 OF AN INCH ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 1.01 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH TO DATE IS
50.6 DEGREES. THIS IS 6.0 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF
56.6 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID MARCH. DURING
THE WEEK OF MARCH 17TH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AVERAGE
THE ENTIRE WEEK WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED MARCH 13 AND VALID MARCH 21 THROUGH MARCH 27 WAS INDICATING
NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2014 THROUGH JUNE 2014...CREATED
ON FEBRUARY 20TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE
AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH INDICATES
PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.
THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON MARCH 20 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE INCREASING DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION SINCE DECEMBER. LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY
OR FALL SLOWLY. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE
SPRING AND INTO SUMMER THE EVAPORATION RATES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND NUECES RIVER
BASINS. BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS WERE SEEN ACROSS
THE SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASIN. THE RIO GRANDE AND COLORADO BASINS
REPORTED NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 13TH...

LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD       1117             1081.9           -35.1
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2            974.4           -89.8
CANYON LAKE         909              900.9            -8.1
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791              776.6           -14.4
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020              989.1           -30.9
LAKE TRAVIS         681              627.8           -53.2

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
30 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    MARCH    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     MARCH AVG      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 642.5 FT   669.2 FT    -26.7 FT         649.9 FT     -7.4 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN NON-DROUGHT.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 4
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MARCH 27 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.