Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
AXUS74 KEWX 231900
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-251900-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
200 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOW IMPROVEMENT...

SYNOPSIS...

APRIL STARTED DRY, THEN TURNED WETTER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SET FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND SENT IMPULSES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WERE
SEVERAL RAINFALL EVENTS THAT PRODUCED 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4-5 INCHES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL
SEVERAL LOCATIONS ALSO EXPERIENCED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FORM OF
STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL. DUE TO THE RAINFALL MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE FALL...SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
ABSENT OR VERY MINIMAL. WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE LONG TERM IMPACTS OF THE DROUGHT. RIVERS
AND LAKES HAVE SHOWN SOME OF THE LARGEST INCREASES IN SEVERAL
MONTHS DUE TO SATURATED SOILS CAUSING INCREASED RUNOFF. DESPITE
THE EXTRA MOISTURE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS...MOST LAKES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN WELL BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL
LEVELS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES... RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 60-70 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE SUMMER AND AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN EL NINO
EVENT CONTINUING INTO DECEMBER 2015. EL NINO LIKE IMPACTS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND
EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO
WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL
TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID APRIL 21ST AND ISSUED ON
APRIL 23RD INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY.
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE
PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY
IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN
EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 35 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND 3 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN
FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF APRIL 23RD...A COUNTY-WIDE BURN BAN WAS IN EFFECT FOR ONE
COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTY WITH AN ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BAN WAS:

VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BEXAR      KINNEY
BURNET     LAVACA
CALDWELL   LEE
COMAL      LLANO
DEWITT     MAVERICK
DIMMIT     MEDINA
EDWARDS    REAL
FAYETTE    TRAVIS
FRIO       UVALDE
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE APRIL 23RD COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200                   200-300

ATASCOSA    HAYS        KERR
BANDERA     KARNES      MAVERICK
BASTROP     KENDALL
BEXAR       KINNEY
BLANCO      LAVACA
BURNET      LEE
CALDWELL    LLANO
COMAL       MEDINA
DEWITT      REAL
DIMMIT      TRAVIS
EDWARDS     UVALDE
FAYETTE     VAL VERDE
FRIO        WILLIAMSON
GILLESPIE   WILSON
GONZALES    ZAVALA
GUADALUPE

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
INDICATED RECENT RAINS WERE GOOD...THOUGH SOME COUNTIES REMAINED
DRY...AND WINTER GRASSES WERE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WATER
STRESS. BLUEBONNETS AND OTHER WILDFLOWERS WERE IN BLOOM. THE PEACH
CROP REMAINED ON TRACK...WITH A LOT OF THINNING EXPECTED TO BE
NEEDED. TEMPERATURES WERE NORMAL FOR MID-APRIL. RANGELAND WAS
MUCH IMPROVED. LIVESTOCK WERE IN GOOD CONDITION. WILD TURKEYS WERE
NESTING.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT APRIL 22, 2015 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      11.55        8.41       +3.14         137%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  10.95        8.81       +2.14         124%
SAN ANTONIO        9.96        7.27       +2.69         137%
DEL RIO            4.21        3.86       +0.35         109%

FOR APRIL TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 1.01 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.11 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.12 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 71.7 DEGREES. THIS
IS 1.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 70.6 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 2.79 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.38 INCHES ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 1.41 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR APRIL TO DATE IS 71.6
DEGREES. THIS IS  3.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 68.3
DEGREES.

FOR APRIL TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 1.20 INCHES OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.21 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.41
INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR APRIL TO
DATE IS 70.9 DEGREES. THIS IS 2.7 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF
68.2 DEGREES.

FOR APRIL TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
RECEIVED 1.17 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.35 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 1.52 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR APRIL TO DATE IS
69.4 DEGREES. THIS IS 3.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 66.3
DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED APRIL 22 AND VALID APRIL 30 THROUGH MAY 6 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO STRONG
SIGNAL FOR ABOVE AVERAGE...BELOW AVERAGE OR AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MAY 2015 THROUGH JULY 2015...
CREATED ON APRIL 16TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DUE TO THE CONTINUED PERIODIC RAINFALL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY. THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO RISE.
IT WILL TAKE MANY RAINFALL EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO
NORMAL CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE ABOVE NORMAL (76-90 PERCENT)
TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT) ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE...LOWER SAN ANTONIO...MEDINA...NUECES...COLORADO AND LOWER
GUADALUPE BASINS. THE UPPER GUADALUPE BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS. THE FRIO RIVER BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW
NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF APRIL 23RD...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1088.4           -28.6
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               976.3           -87.9
CANYON LAKE          909                 898.5           -10.5
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 779.6           -11.4
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 988.4           -31.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 629.2           -51.8

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   APRIL     DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 647.2 FT      638.7 FT     +8.5 FT    667.2 FT     -20.2 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN A NO DROUGHT STATUS.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MAY 7 2015 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130
830-606-3617

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.