Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
318 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS BASICALLY UNCHANGED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

SEPTEMBER SAW SEVERAL RAINFALL EVENTS AND MOST LOCATIONS DID
RECEIVE SOME VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. DUE TO THE SCATTERED
NATURE OF THE RAINFALL MANY LOCATIONS SAW NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH WHILE OTHERS REPORTED BELOW AVERAGE
RAINFALL. SEPTEMBER WAS ONE OF THE WETTEST MONTHS THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN A WHILE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. MOST RIVERS...CREEKS AND
STREAMS ARE NOW REPORTING AT LEAST LOW FLOWS. LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECLINES IN LEVELS WHERE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
LIGHT OR ABSENT. IN AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED RAINFALL LAKES
HAVE SHOWN SOME INCREASES. MANY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES START OUT AT OR BELOW AVERAGE THEN WARM BACK TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL BEFORE COLUMBUS DAY...THEN TRENDS ARE LOOKING DRIER
WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE
SHOWN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING WATER
RESTRICTIONS AND COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT.
RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 60 TO 65 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL
NINO EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID OCTOBER 7TH AND ISSUED ON
OCTOBER 9TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME
DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2)
DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY ARE IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 49 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. IF WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF OCTOBER 10TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 10
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
BURNET
COMAL
DEWITT
KERR
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
DIMMIT     LEE
EDWARDS    LLANO
FAYETTE    MAVERICK
FRIO       REAL
GILLESPIE  TRAVIS
GONZALES   WILLIAMSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA
HAYS

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE OCTOBER 9TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

300-400     400-500     500-600   600-700

BLANCO      BASTROP     ATASCOSA  BEXAR
DIMMIT      CALDWELL    BANDERA
GILLESPIE   EDWARDS     BURNET
FAYETTE     GONZALES    COMAL
LEE         GUADALUPE   DEWITT
LLANO       HAYS        FRIO
TRAVIS      KINNEY      KARNES
WILLIAMSON  REAL        KENDALL
            UVALDE      KERR
            VAL VERDE   LAVACA
            WILSON      MAVERICK
            ZAVALA      MEDINA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON OCTOBER 7 2014 INDICATED...THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE DISTRICT RECEIVED MORE RAIN...BENEFITING DRYLAND FIELDS AND
IMPROVING TOPSOIL AND SUBSOIL MOISTURE. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
DISTRICT WAS BEGINNING TO DRY OUT. COTTON WAS IN VARIOUS STAGES OF
HARVEST...DEPENDING UPON WEATHER CONDITIONS. HAYFIELDS WERE
SHOWING REGROWTH...AND SOME PRODUCERS MAY GET ANOTHER CUTTING.
LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION IN MOST OF
THE DISTRICT. FORAGE AND BROWSING AVAILABILITY IN DEER COUNTRY WAS
GOOD. DEER WERE ON THE MOVE...JUDGING FROM INSTANCES OF ROAD KILL.
DEER HUNTING WAS EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...THEN WARM BACK TO AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR
RAINFALL THEN BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT OCTOBER 9, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      26.87       26.09       +0.78         103%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  19.17       26.56       -7.39          72%
SAN ANTONIO       17.84       25.09       -7.25          71%
DEL RIO           11.40       16.49       -5.09          69%

FOR OCTOBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS
0.78 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.78 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR OCTOBER IS 79.8 DEGREES. THIS IS 5.1 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 74.7 DEGREES.

FOR OCTOBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.12 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 1.12 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR OCTOBER TO DATE IS 81.8 DEGREES.
THIS IS 7.7 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 74.1 DEGREES.

FOR OCTOBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.03 OF AN
INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.98 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF
1.01 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR
OCTOBER TO DATE IS 79.6 DEGREES. THIS IS 5.2 DEGREES ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 74.4 DEGREES.

FOR OCTOBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 0.40 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.52 OF AN INCH
BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.92 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT
THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR OCTOBER TO DATE
IS 77.2 DEGREES. THIS IS 4.8 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 72.4
DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR TO ABOVE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED OCTOBER 10 AND VALID OCTOBER 18 THROUGH OCTOBER 24 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER 2014 THROUGH JANUARY
2015...CREATED ON SEPTEMBER 18TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS
FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON OCTOBER 16 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED IN MOST ARES. MOST
LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE LACK OF
RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO FALL. WITH
EVAPORATION RATES REMAINING HIGH THESE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DECREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE UPPER COLORADO AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. THE MIDDLE SAN ANTONIO...
THE MEDINA...FRIO AND NUECES BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE LOWER COLORADO...THE
UPPER AND LOWER SAN ANTONIO BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF OCTOBER 10TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1083.1           -33.9
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                976.0           -88.3
CANYON LAKE          909                  897.7           -11.3
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  775.2           -15.8
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  986.4           -33.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  623.9           -57.1

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 630 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
4 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
40 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   OCTOBER   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 628.8 FT      637.0 FT     -8.2 FT    663.8 FT     -35.0 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 4
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2
DEL RIO                   STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND OCTOBER 23 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$







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