Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 052051
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-072100-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
251 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS...

SYNOPSIS...

FEBRUARY SAW BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE RAINFALL FROM THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER WAS GREAT NEWS
IN TERMS OF IMPROVING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MOST SHORT TERM DROUGHT
IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED...EXCEPT WATER RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE
FOR MANY LOCALITIES. A FEW COUNTIES CONTINUE WITH COUNTY-WIDE
BURN BANS AS WELL. SOME RANCHERS WERE REPORTING THAT STOCK TANKS
REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION. THE WETTER CONDITIONS IN
JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY ALLOWED FOR SOME RUNOFF TO TAKE PLACE
INTO THE RIVERS AND THIS HELPED TO PROVIDE SMALL RISES ON AREA
LAKES. MOST LAKES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN WELL BELOW THE
CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE
WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...
RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A WEAK EL NINO
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO MONTHS THEN RETURN TO AN ENSO
NEUTRAL PATTERN. EL NINO LIKE IMPACTS ARE NOW BEING FELT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS
THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST
BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY
PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MARCH 3RD AND ISSUED ON
MARCH 5TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME
(D3) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT
STATUS.

CURRENTLY 43 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND 3 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF MARCH 5TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BURNET     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
COMAL      LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE MARCH 5TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400     400-500

CALDWELL    BASTROP     ATASCOSA    DIMMIT
COMAL       BEXAR       BANDERA     FRIO
FAYETTE     BLANCO      DEWITT      KARNES
GONZALES    BURNET      EDWARDS     MAVERICK
HAYS        GILLESPIE   KERR        MEDINA
LEE         GUADALUPE   KINNEY      ZAVALA
TRAVIS      KENDALL     REAL
WILLIAMSON  LAVACA      UVALDE
            LLANO       VAL VERDE
            WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
INDICATED THERE WAS COLD AND MISTY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
REGION...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING SHOWERS THAT WERE EXPECTED
TO BENEFIT SPRING PLANTING. SOME EARLY CORN WAS PLANTED.
SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF LIVESTOCK CONTINUED. LAMBING AND KIDDING
WERE UNDERWAY. RANGELAND AND PASTURES LOOKED GOOD.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT MARCH 4, 2015 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       5.79        4.58       +1.21         126%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   5.94        4.84       +1.10         123%
SAN ANTONIO        4.42        3.85       +0.57         115%
DEL RIO            1.21        1.80       -0.59          67%

FOR MARCH TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.22 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.02 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.20 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 51.6 DEGREES. THIS IS
9.1 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 60.7 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.22 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.08 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 0.30 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 48.6 DEGREES.
THIS IS 10.4 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 59.0 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.27 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.07 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.34 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MARCH TO DATE
IS 46.1 DEGREES. THIS IS 12.1 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 58.2
DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.20 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.13 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 0.33 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 45.8
DEGREES. THIS IS 9.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.6 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED MARCH 4 AND VALID MARCH 12 THROUGH MARCH 19 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2015 THROUGH JUNE 2015...
CREATED ON FEBRUARY 19TH WAS INDICATING NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...BELOW OR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

DUE TO THE CONTINUED PERIODIC LIGHT RAINFALL MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
SEEN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
JANUARY. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE
LEVELS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. IT WILL TAKE MANY RAINFALL EVENTS TO GET
THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE AND SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE COLORADO BASIN REPORTED
BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS. THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...NUECES
AND FRIO BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW (<10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 5TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1087.9           -29.1
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.5           -89.7
CANYON LAKE          909                 897.7           -11.3
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 781.1            -9.9
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 987.3           -32.7
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 625.8           -55.2

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   FEBRUARY   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 644.2 FT      641.6 FT     +2.6 FT    668.6 FT     -24.4 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN A NO DROUGHT STATUS.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MARCH 19 2015 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...STATE
COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS 78130
830-606-3617

$$


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