Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 062020
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493-507-202030-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
220 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS A LITTLE WORSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU...

SYNOPSIS...

DECEMBER SAW THREE RAINFALL EVENTS THAT PRODUCED LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. DESPITE THE RAINFALL...MOST LOCATIONS SAW BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION FOR DECEMBER. RAINFALL FOR 2014 WAS GENERALLY BELOW
AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. DECEMBER ALSO SAW TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR. THE LAST WEEK OF THE
MONTH DID SEE THE FIRST REAL INTRUSION OF COLD AIR SINCE NOVEMBER
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COLD OUTBREAK HELPED TO PRODUCE SOME
FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL HELPED TO REDUCE EVAPORATION RATES AND
WE CONTINUE TO SEE MINOR RUNOFF DURING RAINFALL EVENTS. LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS...BASICALLY REMAINED UNCHANGED DUE TO THE LACK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE LINGERING IMPACTS FROM THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE LOOKING TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR EARLY JANUARY. RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN
SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE REMAINING IMPACTS BEING WATER
RESTRICTIONS AND A FEW COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS. RANCHERS ARE
REPORTING STOCK TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE RAINFALL THIS PAST
FALL AND THE EARLY PART OF WINTER. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT.
RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 65 PERCENT
PERCENT CHANCE THAT A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO WILL DEVELOP AND
CONTINUE INTO SPRING. EL NINO LIKE IMPACTS ARE NOW BEING FELT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL AND BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS
THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST
BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY
PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID DECEMBER 30TH AND ISSUED ON
DECEMBER 31ST INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN WORSE
ACROSS PORTION OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU. ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1)
TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
AND EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 45 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN
FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF JANUARY 6TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BURNET     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
COMAL      LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE JANUARY 6TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400     400-500

BASTROP     BLANCO      BEXAR       ATASCOSA
CALDWELL    BURNET      DEWITT      BANDERA
FAYETTE     COMAL       EDWARDS     DIMMIT
GONZALES    GILLESPIE   KENDALL     FRIO
HAYS        GUADALUPE   KINNEY      KARNES
LEE         LAVACA      LLANO       KERR
TRAVIS      WILSON      VAL VERDE   MAVERICK
WILLIAMSON                          MEDINA
                                    REAL
                                    UVALDE
                                    ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
WAS NOT AVAILABLE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT JANUARY 5, 2015
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       1.59        0.39       +1.20         408%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   1.18        0.39       +0.79         303%
SAN ANTONIO        0.80        0.29       +0.51         276%
DEL RIO            0.04        0.11       -0.07          36%

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.04 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.07 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.11 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 43.4 DEGREES. THIS IS
7.6 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.0 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
0.80 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.51 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF
0.29 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 44.4 DEGREES. THIS IS
6.6 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.0 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 1.59 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 1.20 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.39 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 42.3 DEGREES.
THIS IS 8.7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.0 DEGREES.

FOR JANUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 1.18 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.79 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL
OF 0.39 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JANUARY TO DATE IS 40.3 DEGREES. THIS IS
8.7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 49.0 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JANUARY 5 AND VALID JANUARY 13 THROUGH JANUARY 19 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY 2015 THROUGH APRIL 2015...
CREATED ON DECEMBER 18TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL. ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE THERE WERE STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.
THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON JANUARY 15 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED IN MOST AREAS.
FOR 2014 MOST LOCATIONS ENDED THE YEAR WITH BELOW AVERAGE
RAINFALL. SO FAR IN JANUARY MANY LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL. THE CONTINUED LACK OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS CAUSED
LAKE LEVELS TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY. RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS HAVE
STARTED CAUSE SMALL INCREASES ON MOST AREA LAKES. IT WILL TAKE
MANY RAINFALL EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL
CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE...COLORADO AND UPPER SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE
MEDINA...LOWER SAN ANTONIO AND FRIO BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE GUADALUPE AND NUECES BASINS
REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JANUARY 6TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1087.1           -29.9
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.5           -89.7
CANYON LAKE          909                 896.7           -12.3
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 779.4           -11.6
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 986.6           -33.4
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 623.3           -57.7

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   JANUARY   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 636.0 FT      640.9 FT     -4.9 FT    669.2 FT     -33.2 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND JANUARY 15 2015 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$










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