Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 121835
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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
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493-507-261845-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
135 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

...JUNE STARTED VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WE DID SEE
RAINFALL THE SECOND WEEK WHICH ONCE AGAIN HAS IMPROVED THE
SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A VERY DRY START TO JUNE...THE SECOND WEEK SAW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED MORE WELCOME RAINFALL
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST
LOCATIONS SAW A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. THE WESTERN
AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DID NOT FARE AS WELL AND GENERALLY SAW
LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL. RUNOFF PRODUCED FROM THIS
RECENT RAINFALL EVENT HAS MOST CREEKS AND STREAMS SHOWING NEAR
NORMAL AVERAGE FLOWS FOR MID JUNE. LAKES HAVE SEEN MINIMAL RISES OR
REMAIN FLAT AFTER THE RAINFALL IN MAY THAT DID PRODUCE NICE RISES.
RAINFALL FOR JUNE TO DATE IS NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
ABOVE MID JUNE AVERAGES AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY BEFORE A DRIER PATTERN RESUMES BY
THE 15TH. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO THE
RECENT RAINFALL. CURRENTLY THE MAIN SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. RANCHERS ARE REPORTING
STOCK TANKS DID SHOW INCREASES AND MANY ARE NOW FULL. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED WITH THE WETTING RAINFALL. IN AREAS THAT
DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAINFALL FIRE DANGERS CONTINUE AT ELEVATED
LEVELS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SUMMER 2014. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT CHANCE AN EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JUNE 10TH AND ISSUED ON JUNE
12TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED. MODERATE
DROUGHT (D1) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN
MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL (D4)
DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 69 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND SEVEN PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS REPORTING HIGH FIRE DANGER. IF WETTING RAINFALL
IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF JUNE 12TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 4
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA  FAYETTE      LAVACA
BANDERA   FRIO         LLANO
BASTROP   GILLESPIE    LEE
BLANCO    GONZALES     MAVERICK
BURNET    GUADALUPE    MEDINA
CALDWELL  HAYS         REAL
COMAL     KARNES       TRAVIS
DEWITT    KENDALL      WILLIAMSON
DIMMIT    KERR         ZAVALA
EDWARDS   KINNEY

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE JUNE 12TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200         200-300    300-400   400-500  500-600

BURNET        BEXAR      ATASCOSA  EDWARDS  DIMMIT
FAYETTE       BASTROP    BANDERA   FRIO     KINNEY
GILLESPIE     BLANCO     KARNES    MEDINA   MAVERICK
LAVACA        CALDWELL   REAL      UVALDE   VAL VERDE
LEE           COMAL                         ZAVALA
LLANO         DEWITT
TRAVIS        HAYS
WILLIAMSON    KENDALL
              KERR
              GONZALES
              GUADALUPE
              WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON JUNE 10 2014 INDICATED...RANGELAND AND PASTURES
BEGAN TO SHOW SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT FROM THE GOOD RAINS RECEIVED
THE LAST WEEK OF MAY. WARM-SEASON GRASSES WEE GROWING WELL FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. THERE WERE SOME REPORTS OF SUGARCANE APHIDS
IN GRAIN SORGHUM. PRODUCERS WERE SCOUTING FOR THE APHIDS AND
SPRAYING AS NEEDED. IRRIGATED COTTON AND SORGHUM WERE IN GOOD
CONDITION. LIVESTOCK CONTINUED TO NEED SUPPLEMENTAL FEED. MANY
STOCK WATER TANKS WEE NEARLY FULL OR AT CAPACITY AFTER THE RAINS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AFTER THE 15TH.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT JUNE 11, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      11.63       15.36        -3.73          76%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  11.91       13.51        -1.60          87%
SAN ANTONIO        8.66       13.53        -4.87          64%
DEL RIO            1.35        8.20        -6.85          16%

FOR JUNE TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS 1.00
INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.00 INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR
JUNE TO DATE IS 86.3 DEGREES. THIS IS 3.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL
OF 83.0 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
1.30 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.26 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF
1.56 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 82.3 DEGREES. THIS IS
1.0 DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 81.3 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.55 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 1.28 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.83 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 81.2 DEGREES.
THIS IS 0.3 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.9 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.09 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.37 INCHES BELOW THE
NORMAL OF OF 1.46 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 80.6 DEGREES.
THIS IS 0.8 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 79.8 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE OR NO CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
THE 15TH.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JUNE 11 AND VALID JUNE 19 THROUGH JUNE 25 WAS INDICATING
NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE...BELOW AVERAGE OR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THERE WERE STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW
AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JULY 2014 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2014...
CREATED ON MAY 15TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON JUNE 19 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW SMALL
IMPROVEMENTS DUE TO THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. MOST LOCATIONS STILL
HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. LAKE LEVELS HAVE RISEN OVER
THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WITH EVAPORATION RATES GOING UP DUE TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THE GAINS WE HAVE SEEN WILL TURN INTO
LOSSES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE SAN ANTONIO...MEDINA...FRIO...NUECES AND RIO GRANDE BASINS.
THE GUADALUPE BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) STREAM
FLOW AVERAGES. THE COLORADO BASIN REPORTED NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT)
TO BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 12TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1071.5           -45.5
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                980.1           -84.1
CANYON LAKE          909                  900.9            -8.1
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  775.9           -15.1
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  990.4           -29.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  629.4           -51.6

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
35 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    JUNE    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     JUNE AVG      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 640.7 FT  663.0 FT    -22.3 FT        652.5 FT    -11.8 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20 PERCENT
REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND JUNE 26 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$










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