Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 031659
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-171700-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1159 AM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...

MARCH WAS ANOTHER DRY MONTH DESPITE SEVERAL RAINFALL EVENTS.
MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE YEAR
TO DATE IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE THEN FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH LESS THAN
ONE-HALF INCH EXPECTED. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM IN MANY LOCATIONS...BUT WILL GET WORSE IF DRIER CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING DUE TO ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND STRONGER WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THAT
QUICKLY DRY THE FUELS. LONG TERM IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE
BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND
AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE
TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SPRING 2014. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE AN EL NINO EVENT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL
NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...
SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS
WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID APRIL 1ST AND ISSUED ON APRIL
3RD INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN WORSE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3)
CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)
STATUS. THERE CONTINUED TO BE EXPANDING POCKETS OF EXTREME DROUGHT
(D3) ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS THE HILL
COUNTRY...MAINLY IN GILLESPIE...KERR...BANDERA...MEDINA AND VAL
VERDE COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY 67 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND FOUR PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. IF WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF APRIL 3RD...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 8
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
BURNET
KENDALL
KERR
LLANO
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA     EDWARDS      KINNEY      ZAVALA
BANDERA      FAYETTE      LAVACA
BASTROP      FRIO         LEE
BLANCO       GILLESPIE    MAVERICK
CALDWELL     GONZALES     MEDINA
COMAL        GUADALUPE    REAL
DEWITT       HAYS         TRAVIS
DIMMIT       KARNES       WILLIAMSON

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE APRIL 3RD COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200     200-300    300-400    400-500    500-600

FAYETTE   BASTROP    BLANCO     ATASCOSA   BANDERA
LEE       CALDWELL   BURNET     BEXAR      KARNES
          GONZALES   COMAL      DEWITT     MEDINA
          HAYS       DIMMIT     FRIO
          LAVACA     EDWARDS    GILLESPIE
          TRAVIS     GUADALUPE  KERR
          WILLIAMSON KENDALL    KINNEY
                     LLANO      UVALDE
                     MAVERICK   VAL VERDE
                     REAL
                     WILSON
                     ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON APRIL 1 2014 INDICATED...LIGHT RAIN GAVE SOME
RELIEF TO CROPS AND PASTURES...AND INCREASED SOIL MOISTURE.
HOWEVER...DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WARMED UP...AND VEGETATION WAS GREENING UP. MOST CORN
WAS PLANTED AND EMERGED. PEACH TREES APPEARED THEY MIGHT MAKE A
GREAT CROP...THOUGH IT WILL BE A LITTLE LATER THAN NORMAL.
LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS REMAINED GOOD OVERALL. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING
CONTINUED FOR WILDLIFE AND LIVESTOCK.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...THEN FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR RAINFALL...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY SHOULD AVERAGE ONE-HALF INCH OR LESS.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT APRIL 2, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       2.10        7.13        -5.03          29%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   2.28        7.25        -4.97          31%
SAN ANTONIO        1.71        5.97        -4.26          29%
DEL RIO            0.54        2.81        -2.27          19%

FOR MARCH...DEL RIO RECEIVED 0.32 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS
WAS 0.86 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.18 INCHES. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH WAS 63.2 DEGREES. THIS WAS
0.9 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 64.1 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 1.06
INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS 1.31 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF
2.37 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH WAS 60.6 DEGREES. THIS WAS
1.6 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 62.2 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...AUSTIN MABRY RECEIVED 1.27 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS
WAS 1.56 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 2.83 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MARCH WAS 58.9 DEGREES. THIS
WAS 2.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 61.7 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED
1.19 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS WAS 1.39 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF
2.58 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH WAS 56.7 DEGREES. THIS WAS
2.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 59.2 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES A SLIGHTLY
WETTER PATTERN...WITH CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE AVERAGE...THEN FALL
BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED APRIL 2 AND VALID APRIL 10 THROUGH APRIL 16 WAS INDICATING
NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR AVERAGE...BELOW AVERAGE OR ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2014 THROUGH JUNE 2014...
CREATED ON MARCH 20TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON APRIL 17 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE INCREASING DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION SINCE DECEMBER. LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY.
AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE SPRING AND INTO
SUMMER THE EVAPORATION RATES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE COLORADO,,,GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND
NUECES RIVER BASINS. BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS WERE SEEN
ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO AND RIO GRANDE BASINS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF APRIL 3RD...

LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1081.8           -35.2
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                973.9           -90.3
CANYON LAKE          909                  900.5            -8.5
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  776.6           -14.4
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  988.9           -31.1
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  627.3           -53.7

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
30 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    APRIL    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     APRIL AVG      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 639.7 FT  667.8 FT    -28.1 FT         646.0 FT     -6.3 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN NON-DROUGHT. DROUGHT THRESHOLDS COULD BE EXCEEDED
OVER THE NEXT MONTH OR TWO IF THE LACK OF RAINFALL CONTINUES.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 4
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND APRIL 17 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$









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