Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 210323
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-040330-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1023 PM CDT THU MAR 20 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE PAST WEEK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

MARCH SO FAR HAS PROVIDED SEVERAL RAINFALL EVENTS. DESPITE THE
RAINFALL MANY LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE RAINFALL
DEPARTMENT FOR THE MONTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE NOT BEEN ALL THAT
HEAVY IN MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MORE THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SEVERAL
WEEKS. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE
THEN FALLING BACK TO BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIKELY VARY DEPENDING ON
SEVERAL SYSTEMS THAT COULD IMPACT THE REGION. CURRENTLY MOST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS REMAIN AT A MINIMUM IN MANY LOCATIONS.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE INCREASING DUE TO GRASSES THAT HAVE
DRIED DUE TO FREEZES AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. LONG TERM IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SPRING 2014. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE AN EL NINO EVENT WILL
DEVELOP IN THE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL
NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...
SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS
WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MARCH 18TH AND ISSUED ON MARCH
20TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED OVER THE
PAST WEEK ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) STATUS. THERE CONTINUED TO BE POCKETS OF
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS THE
HILL COUNTRY... MAINLY IN GILLESPIE...KERR...BANDERA AND MEDINA
COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY 64 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND ONE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE ACROSS THE AREA. IF WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF MARCH 20TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 10
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
BLANCO
GILLESPIE
KENDALL
KERR
LLANO
TRAVIS
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA     EDWARDS      LAVACA
BANDERA      FAYETTE      LEE
BASTROP      FRIO         MAVERICK
BURNET       GONZALES     MEDINA
CALDWELL     GUADALUPE    REAL
COMAL        HAYS         WILLIAMSON
DEWITT       KARNES       ZAVALA
DIMMIT       KINNEY

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE MARCH 20TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300    300-400    400-500    500-600

BASTROP     BLANCO     EDWARDS    ATASCOSA    MEDINA
FAYETTE     BURNET     DEWITT     BANDERA
GONZALES    CALDWELL   GILLESPIE  BEXAR
LEE         COMAL      KENDALL    FRIO
TRAVIS      DIMMIT     KERR       KARNES
WILLIAMSON  GUADALUPE  KINNEY     UVALDE
            HAYS       LLANO
            LAVACA     MAVERICK
            REAL       VAL VERDE
                       WILSON
                       ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON MARCH 18 2014 INDICATED...LIGHT RAIN SLOWED THE
DRYING OF SOILS AND PRESERVED RANGELAND QUALITY FOR A LITTLE
LONGER. WINDY AND COOL WEATHER CONTINUED TO THREATEN NEW GROWTH OF
FOLIAGE. WINTER WHEAT AND OATS WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION.
RAIN DURING THE NEXT THREE WEEKS WILL BE CRUCIAL FOR SEVERAL
SPRING AND SUMMER CROPS. PRODUCERS HAD TO PROVIDE FEED AND ACCESS
TO WATER TO MAINTAIN THE CONDITION OF ALL LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...THEN SEVERAL DAYS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
PRECIPITATION WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION
AND AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT MARCH 19, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       2.09        5.93        -3.84          36%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   2.28        6.19        -3.91          38%
SAN ANTONIO        1.29        4.98        -3.69          27%
DEL RIO            0.44        2.32        -1.88          20%

FOR MARCH TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.22 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.46 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.68 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 60.0 DEGREES.
THIS IS 2.7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 62.7 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.64 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.79 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 1.43 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH TO DATE IS 56.9 DEGREES.
THIS IS 3.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 60.7 DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 1.26 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.43 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.69 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MARCH TO DATE IS
55.5 DEGREES. THIS IS 4.7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 60.2DEGREES.

FOR MARCH TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 1.19 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.40 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 1.59 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MARCH TO DATE IS
53.2 DEGREES. THIS IS 4.3 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 57.5
DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES A COUPLE OF
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
QUARTER INCH...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ABOVE AVERAGE
THEN FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED MARCH 20 AND VALID MARCH 28 THROUGH APRIL 3 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO
STRONG SIGNALS FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION...WHICH INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE
NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 2014 THROUGH JUNE 2014...
CREATED ON MARCH 20TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON APRIL 17 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE INCREASING DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION SINCE DECEMBER. LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO HOLD STEADY
OR FALL SLOWLY. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE
SPRING AND INTO SUMMER THE EVAPORATION RATES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND NUECES RIVER
BASINS. BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS WERE SEEN ACROSS
THE COLORADO AND SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASINS. THE RIO GRANDE BASIN
REPORTED NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MARCH 20TH...

LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1081.9           -35.1
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                974.2           -90.0
CANYON LAKE          909                  900.7            -8.3
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  776.7           -14.3
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  988.9           -31.1
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  627.7           -53.3

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
30 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    MARCH    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     MARCH AVG      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 641.2 FT  669.2 FT    -28.0 FT         647.5 FT     -6.3 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN NON-DROUGHT.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 4
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND APRIL 3 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$












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