Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 150246
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-010300-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
846 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR THE WORSE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET JANUARY AND A WET START TO FEBRUARY...RAINFALL
HAS REMAINED VERY LIGHT THE LAST WEEK OR MORE. THE RAINFALL
FROM THE FALL AND EARLY WINTER WAS GREAT NEWS IN TERMS OF
IMPROVING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. MOST SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
HAVE BEEN ELIMINATED...EXCEPT WATER RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE FOR
MANY LOCALITIES. A FEW COUNTIES CONTINUE WITH COUNTY-WIDE BURN
BANS AS WELL. SOME RANCHERS WERE REPORTING THAT STOCK TANKS
REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION. THE WETTER CONDITIONS IN
JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY ALLOWED FOR SOME RUNOFF TO TAKE PLACE
INTO THE RIVERS AND THIS HELPED TO PROVIDE SMALL RISES ON AREA
LAKES. MOST LAKES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN WELL BELOW
THE CONSERVATION POOL LEVELS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE
SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...
RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 50-60 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT TWO MONTHS
THEN RETURN TO AN ENSO NEUTRAL PATTERN. EL NINO LIKE IMPACTS ARE
NOW BEING FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND
EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...
SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS
WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID FEBRUARY 10TH AND ISSUED ON
FEBRUARY 12TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN A TURN FOR
THE WORSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. ABNORMALLY DRY
(D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY
DRY (D0) TO EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL
COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) TO
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 39 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND 13 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT
OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF FEBRUARY 13TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BURNET     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
COMAL      LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE FEBRUARY 14TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400     400-500

BASTROP     BEXAR       ATASCOSA    DIMMIT
BLANCO      BURNET      BANDERA     FRIO
CALDWELL    DEWITT      EDWARDS
COMAL       GILLESPIE   KARNES
FAYETTE     KENDALL     KERR
GONZALES    KINNEY      MAVERICK
GUADALUPE   LLANO       MEDINA
HAYS        UVALDE      REAL
LAVACA                  VAL VERDE
LEE                     ZAVALA
TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
INDICATED COLD...DAMP WEATHER CONTINUED...BUT SOIL MOISTURE WAS
FAVORABLE FOR SPRING PLANTING. WHEAT AND PASTURE GRASSES NEEDED
SUNSHINE. FIELDS WERE BEING CULTIVATED AND PREPARED FOR SPRING
PLANTINGS. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING WAS NECESSARY TO MAINTAIN THE BODY
CONDITIONS OF BOTH WILDLIFE AND LIVESTOCK. THE EXTERNAL PARASITE
LOADS WERE HEAVY ON SOME LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK OF FEBRUARY 16TH A COLDER AND SLIGHTLY WETTER PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT FEBRUARY 13, 2015
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       5.36        3.13       +2.23         171%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   5.56        3.27       +2.29         170%
SAN ANTONIO        3.97        2.59       +1.38         153%
DEL RIO            0.96        1.10       -0.14          87%

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.19 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.19 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.38 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS 55.8
DEGREES. THIS IS 0.7 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 55.1 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.30 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.53 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 0.83 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS 55.7
DEGREES. THIS IS 1.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 54.1 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.34 OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.57 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.91 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE
IS 54.5 DEGREES. THIS IS 0.9 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF
53.6 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.28 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.79 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 1.07 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS 52.0
DEGREES. THIS IS 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 50.7 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED FEBRUARY 14 AND VALID FEBRUARY 22 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 THROUGH MAY 2015...
CREATED ON JANUARY 15TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SEEN ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE
THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. IT WILL TAKE
MANY RAINFALL EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL
CONSERVATION POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE...COLORADO AND SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE
GUADALUPE...MEDINA...NUECES AND FRIO BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW
(<10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 14TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1087.9           -29.1
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.7           -89.5
CANYON LAKE          909                 897.6           -11.4
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 782.0            -9.0
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 987.1           -32.9
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 625.7           -55.3

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   FEBRUARY   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 645.2 FT      643.6 FT     +1.6 FT    669.3 FT     -24.1 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN A NO DROUGHT STATUS.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND FEBRUARY 26 2015 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$









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