Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 101736
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-241745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1236 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
AS THE REGION CONTINUES TO SEE PERIODIC RAINFALL EVENTS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A WET JUNE IN MANY LOCATIONS...JULY HAS BEEN DRIER OVERALL.
NOW THAT THE REGION IS EXPERIENCING LESS RAINFALL FIRE DANGER AND
SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE RETURNING TO MANY LOCATIONS. THE
RAINFALL IN JUNE DID PRODUCE RUNOFF AND MANY CREEKS AND STREAMS
CONTINUED TO SHOW NEAR NORMAL FLOWS FOR MID JULY. LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW SLIGHT DECREASES DUE TO THE RECENT
LACK OF RAINFALL. MOST LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEFICITS FOR
THE YEAR TO DATE IN THE RAINFALL DEPARTMENT. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE MID JULY AVERAGES
AND THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
ARE RETURNING IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS. CURRENTLY THE MAIN SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS. RANCHERS ARE REPORTING STOCK
TANKS DID SHOW INCREASES FROM THE RAINFALL IN JUNE. LONG TERM
DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR
DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND
WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 70 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP IN LATE SUMMER AND A 70-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF AN
EL NINO EVENT DURING THE WINTER. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO
EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO
WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL
TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JULY 8TH AND ISSUED ON JULY
10TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE SHOWN IMPROVEMENTS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIO PLAINS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO
EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE
(D2) DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN
IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 61 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND FIVE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE TO HIGH. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED
THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF JULY 10TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5 COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN
BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
KERR
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA  FAYETTE      LLANO
BANDERA   FRIO         LEE
BASTROP   GILLESPIE    MAVERICK
BLANCO    GONZALES     MEDINA
BURNET    GUADALUPE    REAL
CALDWELL  HAYS         TRAVIS
COMAL     KARNES       WILLIAMSON
DEWITT    KENDALL      ZAVALA
DIMMIT    KINNEY
EDWARDS   LAVACA

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE JULY 10TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

200-300       300-400    400-500    500-600

BURNET        BASTROP    ATASCOSA   BANDERA
DEWITT        BEXAR      BLANCO     FRIO
GONZALES      CALDWELL   COMAL      MEDINA
KARNES        EDWARDS    DIMMIT     ZAVALA
LLANO         FAYETTE    HAYS
WILSON        GILLESPIE  KENDALL
              GUADALUPE  MAVERICK
              KERR       UVALDE
              KINNEY     VAL VERDE
              LAVACA
              LEE
              REAL
              TRAVIS
              WILLIAMSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON JULY 8 2014 INDICATED...HOT AND WINDY WEATHER
CONTINUED...WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS INTERRUPTED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS. CURRENT CONDITIONS REMAINED FAVORABLE FOR ROW
CROPS...FRUITS AND VEGETABLES...LIVESTOCK FORAGES AND PASTURES.
PEACHES AND VEGETABLE PRODUCTION WAS IN FULL SWING...WITH GOOD
TOURIST ANS LOCAL MARKET SALES. GRASSHOPPER POPULATIONS INCREASED
TO LEVELS ECONOMICALLY JUSTIFYING TREATMENT. WHITE-WINGED DOVES
WERE CAUSING SOME DAMAGE TO GRAIN SORGHUM IN SOME AREAS.
CONDITIONS FOR LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE IMPROVED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT JULY 9, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      14.23       18.51        -4.28          77%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  14.19       17.33        -3.14          82%
SAN ANTONIO       12.75       17.20        -4.45          74%
DEL RIO            6.04       10.09        -4.05          60%

FOR JULY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS 0.54 OF AN
INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.54 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR
JULY TO DATE IS 86.0 DEGREES. THIS IS 0.4 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE
NORMAL OF 85.6 DEGREES.

FOR JULY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
0.01 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.08 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF
1.09 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JULY TO DATE IS 83.8 DEGREES. THIS IS
0.2 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 84.0 DEGREES.

FOR JULY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.07 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.58 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.65 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR JULY TO DATE IS
84.1 DEGREES. THIS IS 0.1 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 84.0
DEGREES.

FOR JULY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.69 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.21 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF OF 0.90 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JULY TO DATE IS 81.7
DEGREES. THIS IS 1.2 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 83.9 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JULY 9 AND VALID JULY 17 THROUGH JULY 23 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE
RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR AUGUST 2014 THROUGH OCTOBER 2014...
CREATED ON JUNE 19TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON JULY 17 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

AFTER SHOWING IMPROVEMENTS IN JUNE WITH THE RAINFALL...SHORT TERM
RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE DUE TO THE LACK OF
RAINFALL. MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO
DATE. THE LACK OF RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY
OR FALL SLIGHTLY. WITH EVAPORATION RATES GOING UP DUE TO
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THE GAINS WE HAVE SEEN WILL TURN INTO
LOSSES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE UPPER COLORADO...SAN ANTONIO...MEDINA...FRIO...NUECES AND
RIO GRANDE BASINS. THE LOWER GUADALUPE BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE LOWER COLORADO AND UPPER
GUADALUPE BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT)
STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JULY 10TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1075.4           -41.6
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                979.2           -85.0
CANYON LAKE          909                  900.4            -8.6
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  775.7           -15.3
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  990.1           -29.9
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  629.0           -52.0

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
35 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    JULY    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     JULY AVG      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 633.3 FT  660.9 FT    -27.6 FT        641.4 FT     -8.1 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 1 VOLUNTARY DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 10
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
DEL RIO                   STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND JULY 24 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$








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