Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 181846
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-021900-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
146 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY IN A FEW AREAS AND OTHER
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THE DROUGHT GET WORSE OVER THE PAST WEEK...

SYNOPSIS...

THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER HAS SEEN SCATTERED RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LARGEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO DATE HAVE
BEEN SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND OVER THE COASTAL
PLAINS. A FEW LOCATIONS IN THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 4-7 INCHES. ON THE OTHER HAND...MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL DUE TO THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.
MOST RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW FLOWS. LAKES
AND RESERVOIRS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECLINES IN LEVELS WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT OR ABSENT. MANY LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW
RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER WITH
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS
HAVE SHOWN SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING WATER
RESTRICTIONS AND COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT.
RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS. THERE ARE A FEW LAKES THAT ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSERVATION POOL IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA
AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID SEPTEMBER 16TH AND ISSUED ON
SEPTEMBER 18TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED IN A FEW
AREAS AND OTHER AREAS HAVE SEEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS GET WORSE OVER
THE PAST WEEK. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) CONDITIONS
WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS ARE
CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE HILL
COUNTRY ARE IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 57 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND TWO PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW TO MODERATE DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL. IF
WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL
REMAIN HIGH.

AS OF SEPTEMBER 18TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR
16 COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
BURNET
CALDWELL
COMAL
DEWITT
GONZALES
GUADALUPE
KENDALL
LLANO
MEDINA
TRAVIS
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILLIAMSON
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KERR
BLANCO     KINNEY
DIMMIT     LAVACA
EDWARDS    LEE
FAYETTE    MAVERICK
FRIO       REAL
GILLESPIE  ZAVALA
HAYS


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE SEPTEMBER 18TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
SHOWED THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

200-300    300-400      400-500    500-600     600-700

LEE        BLANCO       BANDERA    ATASCOSA    BEXAR
TRAVIS     CALDWELL     BASTROP    BURNET      FRIO
           FAYETTE      COMAL      DEWITT      LAVACA
           HAYS         EDWARDS    DIMMIT
           WILLIAMSON   GILLESPIE  GUADALUPE
                        GONZALES   KARNES
                        KENDALL    KINNEY
                        KERR       LLANO
                        REAL       MAVERICK
                        UVALDE     MEDINA
                                   VAL VERDE
                                   WILSON
                                   ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON SEPTEMBER 9 2014 INDICATED...WEATHER IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE DISTRICT BEGAN TO COOL A LITTLE. MUCH OF THE
DISTRICT RECEIVED SPOTTY SHOWERS. THE COOLER WEATHER AND THE
SHOWERS HELPED STABILIZE TOPSOIL AND SUBSOIL MOISTURE. THE GRAIN
SORGHUM HARVEST WAS WRAPPED UP...WITH AVERAGE YIELDS REPORTED.
THE CORN HARVEST WAS MOSTLY FINISHED...WITH FAIR TO POOR YIELDS.
COTTON WAS IN VARIOUS STAGES OF DEFOLIATION...WITH A FEW AREAS
GEARING UP TO STRIP OR PICK. BOTH PASTURE AND FORAGE CROPS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE REGION NEEDED RAIN. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES
REMAINED IN FAIR CONDITION IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. DOVE NUMBERS
WERE SOLID. FORAGE AVAILABILITY AND BROWSING FOR DEER WAS
GOOD...AND A GOOD ACORN CROP WAS PREDICTED...WHICH PROMISED AN
EXCELLENT DEER HUNTING SEASON.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT SEPTEMBER 17, 2014
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      22.84       23.94       -1.10          95%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  16.73       24.59       -7.86          68%
SAN ANTONIO       16.98       22.73       -5.75          75%
DEL RIO            8.59       14.81       -6.22          58%

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 1.42 INCHES OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.12 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.30 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 82.2 DEGREES.
THIS IS 0.1 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 82.1 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.91 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.88 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 1.79 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE IS 83.7
DEGREES. THIS IS 2.2 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 81.5 DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 2.98 INCHES
OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.13 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 1.85 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE
IS 83.0 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.1 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 81.9
DEGREES.

FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
HAS RECEIVED 1.18 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.31 OF AN INCH
BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.49 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT
THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR SEPTEMBER TO DATE
IS 82.0 DEGREES. THIS IS 2.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 79.6
DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR TO BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED SEPTEMBER 17 AND VALID SEPTEMBER 25 THROUGH OCTOBER 1 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 2014 THROUGH DECEMBER
2014...CREATED ON SEPTEMBER 18TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS
FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL. THESE
OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON OCTOBER 16 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED IN SOME AREAS AND
GROWN WORSE IN OTHER LOCATIONS. MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A
DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE LACK OF RAINFALL HAS CAUSED
LAKE LEVELS TO CONTINUE TO FALL. WITH EVAPORATION RATES REMAINING
HIGH THESE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE BASIN. THE UPPER SAN ANTONIO...THE MIDDLE COLORADO...
MEDINA...FRIO AND NUECES BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10-24
PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE LOWER COLORADO...GUADALUPE AND
LOWER SAN ANTONIO BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10
PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF SEPTEMBER 18TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1076.7           -40.3
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                976.7           -87.5
CANYON LAKE          909                  898.0           -11.0
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  775.1           -15.9
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  986.6           -33.4
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  623.3           -57.7

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 630 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
4 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
40 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 629.0 FT      634.8 FT     -5.8 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 4
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2
DEL RIO                   STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND OCTOBER 2 2014 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$










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