Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 141923
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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-281930-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
223 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2014

...AFTER A SHORT PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT...DROUGHT CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN ARE STARTING TO GET WORSE DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL IN
MANY LOCATIONS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER PERIODIC RAINFALL IN JUNE AND THE FIRST HALF OF JULY A DRIER
PATTERN HAS ONE AGAIN DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION. JULY DID END
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL...BUT THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA WAS BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE RAINFALL. MOST RIVERS...CREEKS AND STREAMS CONTINUED TO SHOW
DECREASING FLOWS ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT HAVE MISSED THE
RECENT RAINFALL. THE WESTERN HALF OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WAS
REPORTING NEAR AVERAGE STREAM FLOWS FOR MID AUGUST WHILE THE
EASTERN HALF REPORTED BELOW TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE FLOWS. LAKES AND
RESERVOIRS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW DECLINES IN LEVELS WHERE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN LIGHT OR ABSENT. MOST LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO
SHOW RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE MID AUGUST AVERAGES AND THERE WILL BE
LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE RETURNING
IN MANY LOCATIONS DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS. CURRENTLY THE MAIN SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE WATER
RESTRICTIONS IN MANY LOCATIONS. LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT.
RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS. THERE ARE A FEW LAKES THAT ARE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CONSERVATION POOL IN AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN MORE FREQUENT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PAST MONTH.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE. THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO WATCH...SAYING
THERE IS AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT CHANCE A WEAK TO MODERATE EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA
AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID AUGUST 12TH AND ISSUED ON
AUGUST 14TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE
WORSE ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
MOST LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2)
DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY ARE IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.
A SMALL AREA OF THE HILL COUNTRY HAS NOW ENTERED INTO EXCEPTIONAL
(D4) DROUGHT STATUS AFTER MISSING MUCH OF THE RECENT RAINFALL.

CURRENTLY 58 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE TO HIGH WITH A FEW SMALL AREAS OF LOW
FIRE DANGER. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER
THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF AUGUST 14TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 16
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
BLANCO
BURNET
CALDWELL
COMAL
GUADALUPE
HAYS
KENDALL
KERR
LLANO
MEDINA
TRAVIS
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KINNEY
DEWITT     LAVACA
DIMMIT     LEE
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       WILLIAMSON
GILLESPIE  ZAVALA
GONZALES


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE AUGUST 14TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

400-500       500-600    600-700

BURNET        ATASCOSA    BANDERA
EDWARDS       BEXAR       BASTROP
KINNEY        BLANCO      CALDWELL
LLANO         DEWITT      COMAL ZAVALA
REAL          FAYETTE     GUADALUPE
WILLIAMSON    FRIO        LAVACA
              GILLESPIE
              GONZALES
              KARNES
              KENDALL
              KERR
              HAYS
              LEE
              MAVERICK
              MEDINA
              TRAVIS
              UVALDE
              VAL VERDE
              WILSON
              ZAVALA

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON AUGUST 12 2014 INDICATED...HOT AND DRY WEATHER
CONTINUED TO DECREASE TOPSOIL AND SUBSOIL MOISTURE. THE GRAIN
SORGHUM HARVEST WAS WRAPPING UP WITH AVERAGE YIELDS REPORTED. THE
CORN HARVEST BEGAN BUT NO YIELD DATA WAS AVAILABLE YET. MOST
IRRIGATED COTTON WAS IN BLOOM AND SQUARING WAS BEGINNING. PASTURE
AND FORGE GRASSES WERE SUFFERING FROM MOISTURE STRESS. HAY FIELDS
WERE NO LONGER GROWING...AND AFTER THE FIRST CUTTING...HAYGRAZER
FIELDS NEEDED A RAIN TO MAKE A SECOND CUTTING. LIVESTOCK REMAINED
IN FAIR CONDITION. WHERE GRAZING PRESSURE WAS MODERATE...LIVESTOCK
SHOULD BE ALRIGHT WITHOUT SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING FOR A WHILE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED RAINFALL CHANCES...MAINLY ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAINS.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT AUGUST 13, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      19.79       20.52        -0.73          96%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  15.55       21.66        -6.11          72%
SAN ANTONIO       16.07       19.49        -3.42          82%
DEL RIO            7.14       12.03        -4.89          59%

FOR AUGUST TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.75 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 0.05 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.70 OF AN INCH. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR AUGUST TO DATE IS 87.1 DEGREES. THIS IS
0.1 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 87.0 DEGREES.

FOR AUGUST TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
0.08 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.56 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF 0.64 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR AUGUST TO DATE IS 87.0 DEGREES. THIS IS
1.0 DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 86.0 DEGREES.

FOR AUGUST TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.05 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.73 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.78 OF AN INCH.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR AUGUST TO DATE IS 85.7
DEGREES. THIS IS 0.3 OF A DEGREE BELOW THE NORMAL OF 86.0 DEGREES.

FOR AUGUST TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.59 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF OF 0.59 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR AUGUST TO DATE IS 84.3 DEGREES.
THIS IS 0.3 OF A DEGREE ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 84.0 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND ONLY ISOLATED RAINFALL...MAINLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED AUGUST 13 AND VALID AUGUST 21 THROUGH AUGUST 27 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR SEPTEMBER 2014 THROUGH NOVEMBER
2014...CREATED ON JULY 17TH WAS INDICATING NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...WHICH
INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THE OUTLOOKS WERE INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON
AUGUST 21 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

AFTER A FEW MONTHS OF IMPROVEMENTS...THE SHORT TERM RAINFALL
DEFICITS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL.
MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. THE LACK
OF RAINFALL HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR FALL
SLIGHTLY. WITH EVAPORATION RATES REMAINING HIGH THESE LEVELS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE MEDINA...FRIO...NUECES AND RIO GRANDE BASINS. THE GUADALUPE...
UPPER SAN ANTONIO AND UPPER COLORADO BASINS REPORTED BELOW NORMAL
(10-24 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW AVERAGES. THE LOWER COLORADO BASINS
REPORTED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN 10 PERCENT) STREAM FLOW
AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF AUGUST 14TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1075.2           -41.8
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                977.9           -86.3
CANYON LAKE          909                  899.2            -9.8
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  775.8           -15.2
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  988.9           -31.1
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  626.6           -54.4

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 630 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
4 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 4 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
40 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 628.9 FT      636.5 FT     -7.6 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 1 VOLUNTARY DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 10
PERCENT REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2
DEL RIO                   STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND AUGUST 28 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$








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