Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 051946 AAA
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-192000-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
146 PM CST THU FEB 5 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS UNCHANGED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

JANUARY ENDED ON A WET NOTE AND FEBRUARY HAS BEGUN WITH WET
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN GREAT NEWS
IN TERMS OF IMPROVING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WITH COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND SEVERAL RAINFALL EVENTS WE HAVE SEEN
MINOR RUNOFF DURING THESE PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THIS RUNOFF
IS GETTING INTO THE LAKES AND WE HAVE SEEN SOME MINOR
IMPROVEMENTS IN LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS. MOST LAKES ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN WELL BELOW THE CONSERVATION POOL
LEVELS. SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED WITH VERY
LIMITED IMPACTS STILL BEING OBSERVED. THE MAIN IMPACTS THAT
REMAIN ARE COUNTY WIDE BURN BANS AND SOME RANCHERS WERE
REPORTING THAT STOCK TANKS REMAIN LOW DESPITE THE PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING A 50-
60 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT A WEAK EL NINO WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT TWO MONTHS
THEN RETURN TO AN ENSO NEUTRAL PATTERN. EL NINO LIKE IMPACTS ARE
NOW BEING FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND
EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER
CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...
SO
WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL
TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID FEBRUARY 3RD AND ISSUED ON
FEBRUARY 5TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED UNCHANGED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME
DROUGHT
(D3) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO SEVERE (D2)
DROUGHT STATUS. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU ARE CURRENTLY IN EXTREME (D3) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 39 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND THREE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS LOW. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN
FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF FEBRUARY 5TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 5
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
DEWITT
MEDINA
UVALDE
VAL VERDE

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA   HAYS
BANDERA    KARNES
BASTROP    KENDALL
BLANCO     KERR
BURNET     KINNEY
CALDWELL   LAVACA
COMAL      LEE
DIMMIT     LLANO
EDWARDS    MAVERICK
FAYETTE    REAL
FRIO       TRAVIS
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON
GONZALES   WILSON
GUADALUPE  ZAVALA


RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE FEBRUARY 5TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300     300-400     400-500

BASTROP     BEXAR       ATASCOSA    DIMMIT
BLANCO      BURNET      BANDERA     FRIO
CALDWELL    DEWITT      EDWARDS
COMAL       GILLESPIE   KARNES
FAYETTE     KINNEY      KERR
GONZALES    LLANO       MAVERICK
GUADALUPE   UVALDE      MEDINA
HAYS        VAL VERDE   REAL
KENDALL                 ZAVALA
LAVACA
LEE
TRAVIS
WILLIAMSON
WILSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
INDICATED PASTURES WERE IN RELATIVELY GOOD SHAPE. WINTER GRASSES
WERE RESPONDING WELL AFTER RECENT RAINS. SMALL GRAINS WERE BEING
GRAZED SHORT...AND SOME PRODUCERS WERE WAITING FOR WARMER WEATHER
FOR THE CROPS TO REGROW. FIELD FERTILIZATION AND PREPARATIONS FOR
CORN AND GRAIN SORGHUM PLANTING WAS ONGOING. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING
OF LIVESTOCK SLOWED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2015 TO MIDNIGHT FEBRUARY 4, 2015
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2015       NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL    TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       5.36        2.48       +2.88         216%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   5.56        2.49       +3.07         223%
SAN ANTONIO        3.97        2.01       +1.96         198%
DEL RIO            0.95        0.83       +0.12         114%

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.18 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.07 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.11 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS 51.4
DEGREES. THIS IS 2.6 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 54.0 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.30 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.05 OF AN INCH ABOVE
THE NORMAL OF 0.25 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN
ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS 49.8
DEGREES. THIS IS 3.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 53.3 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.34 OF AN INCH
OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.08 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 0.26 OF AN
INCH.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS
47.4 DEGREES. THIS IS 5.6 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF
53.0 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.28 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.01 OF AN INCH BELOW
THE
NORMAL OF 0.29 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS 47.1
DEGREES. THIS IS 2.9 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 50.0 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED FEBRUARY 4 AND VALID FEBRUARY 12 THROUGH FEBRUARY 19 WAS
INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2015 THROUGH MAY 2015...
CREATED
ON JANUARY 15TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

MOST LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN SEEN ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION SINCE
THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY. THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL
HAS CAUSED LAKE LEVELS TO RISE SLIGHTLY. IT WILL TAKE MANY
RAINFALL EVENTS TO GET THE LAKE LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL
CONSERVATION
POOLS.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUES.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE...COLORADO AND SAN ANTONIO BASINS. THE
GUADALUPE BASIN REPORTED BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS. THE
MEDINA...NUECES AND FRIO BASINS REPORTED MUCH BELOW (<10 PERCENT)
STREAM FLOW AVERAGES.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 5TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                1087.9           -29.1
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2               974.7           -89.5
CANYON LAKE          909                 897.6           -11.4
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                 781.6            -9.4
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                 987.0           -33.0
LAKE TRAVIS          681                 625.4           -55.6

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT      2014 LEVEL   DEPARTURE   JANUARY   DEPARTURE FROM
  LEVEL      ON THIS DATE  FROM 2014   AVERAGE      AVERAGE

 645.7 FT      643.4 FT     +2.3 FT    669.3 FT     -23.6 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN A NO DROUGHT STATUS.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 2

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND FEBRUARY 19 2015 OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$








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