Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 180253
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TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
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493-507-010300-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
953 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2014

...DROUGHT HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND REMAIN UNCHANGED ACROSS THE WEST...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A VERY DRY START TO MAY...THE SECOND WEEK OF THE MONTH
SAW A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING
AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES. THIS WAS A WELCOME CHANGE TO THE DRY PATTERN
THAT HAS PERSISTED SINCE LATE 2013. THE RAINFALL WAS VERY HEAVY
FOR A PERIOD OF TIME AND MUCH OF THE WATER RAN INTO AREA
CREEK...STREAMS AND RIVERS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE MAJORITY OF THE
RAINFALL FELL TO THE SOUTH OF AREA LAKES AND ONLY MINIMAL RISES OF
LESS THAN HALF A FOOT WERE OBSERVED. TO BEGIN TO PUT A DENT INTO
THE MULTI YEAR DROUGHT THE RAINFALL WILL NEED TO BE MORE FREQUENT.
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS AND EDWARDS PLATEAU MISSED OUT ON THE RAINFALL AND REMAIN
VERY DRY. THE RECENT RAINFALL EVENT DID PUSH MOST LOCATIONS AHEAD
OF THE AVERAGE RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH...BUT ALL LOCATIONS REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE FOR RAINFALL SINCE JANUARY 1ST. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
WEST HAVE SEEN 10 PERCENT OR LESS OF THEIR YEARLY RAINFALL TO
DATE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR MID-MAY
AVERAGES AND A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR MORE RAINFALL. SHORT TERM
DROUGHT IMPACTS ARE GETTING WORSE AS DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
CURRENTLY THE MAIN SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. RANCHERS ARE REPORTING STOCK TANKS
ARE STARTING TO DRY UP DUE TO THE LACK OF RAINFALL. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUE DUE TO LONGER TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS...GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES THAT QUICKLY DRY THE FUELS. LONG TERM
IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT.
RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS ARE VERY LOW AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SUMMER 2014. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT CHANCE AN EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID MAY 13TH AND ISSUED ON MAY 15TH
INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND NO CHANGE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT (D4) CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
LOCATIONS TO THE EAST OF HIGHWAY 281 WERE IN MODERATE DROUGHT
(D1) TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) STATUS. LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281 WERE IN EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
(D4) STATUS.

CURRENTLY 73 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND 21 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE TO VERY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. IF WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF MAY 17TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 6 COUNTIES
IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN
BANS INCLUDE:

ATASCOSA
BEXAR
LLANO
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

BANDERA   FAYETTE      KINNEY
BASTROP   FRIO         LAVACA
BLANCO    GILLESPIE    LEE
BURNET    GONZALES     MAVERICK
CALDWELL  GUADALUPE    MEDINA
COMAL     HAYS         REAL
DEWITT    KARNES       TRAVIS
DIMMIT    KENDALL      WILLIAMSON
EDWARDS   KERR         ZAVALA

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE MAY 17TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200      200-300     300-400    400-500      500-600

BASTROP    BEXAR       ATASCOSA   BANDERA      DIMMIT
CALDWELL   BLANCO      COMAL      EDWARDS      KENNY
FAYETTE    BURNET      DEWITT     FRIO         VAL VERDE
GONZALES   GUADALUPE   GILLESPIE  MAVERICK
HAYS       KENDALL     KARNES     MEDINA
LAVACA     LLANO       KERR       UVALDE
LEE        WILSON                 REAL
TRAVIS                            ZAVALA
WILLIAMSON

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SEEN ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. RAINFALL RANGED FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES. ACROSS THE WEST
RAINFALL WAS NOT AS PLENTIFUL AND MOST LOCATIONS SAW LESS THAN ONE
HALF IF AN INCH OF RAIN. MOST RANGELAND REMAINED IN POOR
CONDITION. LIVESTOCK REMAINED IN GOOD CONDITION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR MORE RAINFALL.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT MAY 16, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       7.58       11.33        -3.75          67%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   8.28       10.84        -2.56          76%
SAN ANTONIO        5.23       10.00        -4.77          52%
DEL RIO            0.72        5.79        -5.07          12%

FOR MAY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.10 OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
THIS IS 1.30 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.40 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR MAY TO DATE IS 76.2 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.0 DEGREES
BELOW THE NORMAL OF 77.2 DEGREES.

FOR MAY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
2.84 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.80 OF AN INCH ABOVE THE NORMAL OF
2.04 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MAY TO DATE IS 73.6 DEGREES. THIS IS
1.4 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 75.0 DEGREES.

FOR MAY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 3.59 INCHES OF RAIN.
THIS IS 1.35 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 2.24 INCHES. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MAY TO DATE IS 72.8 DEGREES. THIS
IS 2.1 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 74.9 DEGREES.

FOR MAY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 4.35 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS IS 2.90 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL
OF 1.45 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN BERGSTROM
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR MAY TO DATE IS 70.7 DEGREES. THIS IS
2.5 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 73.2 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED MAY 17 AND VALID MAY 25 THROUGH MAY 31 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE
RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JUNE 2014 THROUGH AUGUST 2014...
CREATED ON APRIL 17TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON MAY 15 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS CONTINUE DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION SINCE DECEMBER. LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL.
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE SPRING AND INTO
SUMMER THE EVAPORATION RATES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE FRIO RIVER BASIN. NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT)
FLOWS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE COLORADO...SAN ANTONIO AND RIO GRANDE
BASINS. BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS WERE SEEN ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE...MEDINA AND NUECES RIVER BASINS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF MAY 17TH...

LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1070.9           -46.1
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                972.6           -91.6
CANYON LAKE          909                  899.9            -9.1
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  776.1           -14.9
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  987.4           -32.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  625.4           -55.6

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
35 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    MAY     DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     MAY AVG       ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 638.0 FT  666.2 FT    -28.2 FT        646.2 FT     -8.2 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20 PERCENT
REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MAY 29 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$










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