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370
FXUS62 KFFC 041340
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
940 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024



...Mid-Morning Update...

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 932 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Forecast remains on track for this morning. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are ongoing across north and central Georgia. Some
of these storms have become strong and capable of producing
frequent lightning and gusts to 40 mph. Still expect activity to
taper off/move eastward and out of the state over the next hour
or two before re-developing under peak heating early this
afternoon.


96
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Much like yesterday, high pressure at the surface will continue
through the period. The mid levels remain active today, but ridging
should build by the end of the weekend.

500mb analysis shows ridging just offshore the SE coast. A shortwave
trough is moving through central AL early this morning. This mid
level system could provide just enough lift for some light
shra/patchy light rain early this morning and continue to provide
some lift for scattered afternoon convection. The shortwave trough
will move very slowly eastward, and could remain right along the
coast through early Sunday. Ridging should briefly build across the
CWA late Sunday.

At the surface, weak high pressure will persist. A weak frontal
boundary will move across the Mid Mississippi River Valley and Ohio
Valley on Sunday. The front will sag southward late Sunday, with the
boundary laying down from east to west. The boundary should remain
north of the CWA. Not much denoted in the surface pattern to focus
convection, the main forcing mechanisms should be in the mid levels.

The high res models are showing some organization to convection this
afternoon across the eastern portion of the CWA. This is likely
associated with the trough aloft. Have kept pops mostly isold/sct
across much of the CWA, but have kept the likely pops in the east.

A few storms could become strong this afternoon with lightning and
gusty winds being the primary hazards. BL winds remain very light
(weak steering currents) and PWATs are 1.5"+, so locally heavy
rainfall is possible where thunderstorms form. An isolated severe
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

PoPs will remain elevated on Monday as a shortwave trough progresses
through quasi-zonal midlevel flow across the Tennessee Valley into
the Appalachians. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
can be expected given the presence of a moist airmass characterized
by PWATs in the 1.5-1.7" range. While no notable severe threat is
expected, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy
rainfall would be expected in any stronger thunderstorm.

Drier but hotter conditions will make a return by Tuesday into
Wednesday as shortwave ridging builds across the area. As such, any
isolated/widely scattered convection would be relegated to far north
Georgia during these midweek days. Temperatures will respond in kind
with upper 80s to low 90s spreading across the area for highs, some
8-12 degrees above seasonal norms.

Flow aloft by Thursday becomes more southwesterly between the trough
extending from the Great Lakes and ridging centered across the Gulf.
With the near-stationary surface front extending across the Mid-
Mississippi Valley Thursday, disturbances propagating along the
frontal zone will serve to increase PoPs, especially across north
Georgia. Given plentiful SBCAPE and more favorable bulk shear, will
have to monitor the potential for any severe risk associated with
potential convective complexes that could affect the area by
Thursday and again into Friday as the surface front pushes into the
area.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Could be some patchy MVFR cigs behind the shra this morning, but
confidence is low. Cigs should be between 035-050 for much of the
day, a few breaks in the cu are possible in the very late
afternoon. MVFR/IFR possible again overnight. Winds should be on
the west side for much of today, but go SE again overnight. SW
expected by mid morning Sunday.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Med confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          63  83  64  82 /  40  40  40  70
Atlanta         65  82  65  82 /  30  40  40  60
Blairsville     60  77  60  76 /  40  40  50  80
Cartersville    63  83  63  83 /  30  40  40  70
Columbus        66  87  66  87 /  20  40  30  40
Gainesville     64  81  64  80 /  30  40  40  80
Macon           65  86  65  85 /  40  40  20  60
Rome            63  84  64  84 /  30  40  50  70
Peachtree City  64  84  64  84 /  30  40  40  60
Vidalia         66  87  67  86 /  40  40  20  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...NListemaa