Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000 FXUS62 KFFC 260743 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 343 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 As the upper trough becomes negatively tilted through the course of the day, a strong embedded shortwave will quickly eject over the Mississippi Valley northeastward into southeastern Canada. The surface low will follow suit and quickly zip off to the northeast over the Great Lakes Region. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the attendant cold front will march eastward and arrive in northwest Georgia this morning as a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast. Isolated to scattered showers as well as a few thunderstorms ahead of the main push are also possible, as we have already seen this morning. Recent model trends suggest a further northward push of a plume of instability into the metro area today coinciding with the organized line of convection. MUCAPE around 100-250 J/kg and 0-1km bulk shear ~35-50 KT will be sufficient to support updrafts embedded within the line. Southeast winds will also remain strong through the early afternoon where sustained winds between 15 and 25 mph could gust as high as 45 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2PM this afternoon for portions of north and western Georgia. Winds are expected to diminish quickly this afternoon from the northwest as the pressure gradient slackens with the weakening of the surface high over the Mid-Atlantic. Later this afternoon, the line is expected to slow considerably and will bifurcate the forecast area along a southwest to northeast axis. At this time, the warm front will be draped over central Georgia and cyclogenesis in the northern Gulf will produce a secondary wave of convective activity along the boundary that is expected to last through the end of the short term period. Ahead of this next wave, temperatures are expected to be well into the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. During Tuesday`s overnight and Wednesday`s early morning hours, an additional plume of instability will overspread areas south of I-20. Within this surge, MUCAPE will range from 500-700 J/kg for areas east of I-75 and south of I-16 and ~30KT of 0-1km bulk shear. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will linger through Wednesday afternoon across east central Georgia until the next shortwave embedded within the 500 mb flow helps shift the system off to the east with the cold front pushing into northwest Georgia. At this time, the threat for severe weather is low throughout the short term period, but strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning will be the primary concerns in any thunderstorms that develop. Areas northwest of the convective activity will experience the gradual scattering of clouds during the afternoon hours as the cold front marches southeastward. KAL
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&& .LONG TERM...
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(Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 335 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 The long term period picks up on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the mid-/upper-level trough that was talked about in the short term discussion shifts eastward over the Southeast. A jet streak/vort max passing through the base of the trough over the Gulf Coast is progged to generate an area of low pressure over the southern portion of the Eastern Seaboard. The SREF projects a 30% to 50% chance for CAPE > 500 J/kg across our southeastern counties on Wednesday night through early Thursday morning, and bulk shear will be strong within the aforementioned jet streak, so this will translate to a chance (20% to 40%) for thunderstorms across east-central Georgia. Across the rest of the CWA, isolated to scattered showers can be expected during this time frame. Instability is expected to wane by late Thursday morning as a cold front pushes through the CWA with much drier air in tow. Showers are expected to taper off across the western half or so of the CWA, but continue across the eastern half or so through Thursday afternoon, where moisture is slower to scour out behind the front. Behind the cold front will be an expansive area of high pressure across the Southeast while upper-level ridging encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. Fire weather conditions (relative humidity, winds/gusts, and finer fuel moistures) will bear watching on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday as conditions warm up and dry out. Martin
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&& .AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS) Issued at 205 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024 MVFR cigs at TAF locations this morning. Conditions will deteriorate through TAF period as a line of SHRA/TSRA moves through the area today. Line with embedded TSRA will impact the metro area beginning around 15-17Z but SHRA will be possible through the morning hours. Strong ESE winds at 10-15 KT will gust to 25-28 KT through the afternoon Tuesday. Winds will shift to NW after 04Z Wednesday. Cigs/vsbys will drop to IFR after ~12Z and approach LIFR after 02-04Z Wednesday as winds slacken to 4KT or less. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on winds. Medium confidence on all other elements. KAL
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens 66 51 75 50 / 90 60 30 40 Atlanta 66 51 73 49 / 90 30 10 20 Blairsville 57 45 70 43 / 100 40 10 20 Cartersville 65 47 71 45 / 100 20 10 10 Columbus 71 54 77 51 / 90 30 20 30 Gainesville 61 50 74 49 / 100 40 20 30 Macon 75 58 77 51 / 80 70 50 50 Rome 67 46 72 44 / 100 10 0 10 Peachtree City 68 51 74 47 / 90 30 20 20 Vidalia 80 63 73 56 / 30 70 90 80
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&& .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ001>009- 011>016-019>022-030>033-041>044-052-053-066-067-078-079-089>092- 102>104. && $$ SHORT TERM...KAL LONG TERM....Martin AVIATION...KAL

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