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000
FXUS62 KFFC 221950
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND PERSIST
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED AS ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE FOCUSES DEVELOPMENT. MODELS A
LITTLE INCONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT AND/OR PROGRESSION OF THE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION...BUT WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITIES...DIURNAL HEATING...AND INCREASING SHEAR ACROSS THE
AREA...FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF
POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS...ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL...IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA...GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ATL METRO AREA. HAVE ALSO
QUICKLY TAPERED OFF EVENING AND OVERNIGHT POPS INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY THURSDAY AS SHORT WAVE PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THE SEVERE THREAT IS PRIMARILY CONFINED TO
NORTH GEORGIA...THOUGH STRONG STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS IN SEVERE ACTIVITY WILL BE GUSTY WINDS
TO 60 MPH OR HIGHER...1 INCH HAIL OR HIGHER...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO FRIDAY...WITH
WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN GEORGIA.

FOR THE TEMPERATURES..HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH A GUIDANCE BLEND.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S...AND
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE DIMINISHING CONVECTION AND CLOUDS OUT
OF THE AREA...THIS COULD IMPACT MORNING LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE COOLING BY FRIDAY.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE OH/TN VALLEYS DURING
THE DAY. GRADIENT WINDS WILL INCREASE GETTING CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA(20 MPH SUSTAINED) FOR SOME AREAS. DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND EVEN WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NW FLOW ALOFT N OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES NORTH
OF THE STATE...BUT IT SHOULD STAY DRY ACROSS GA. LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER MOISTURE FINALLY MOVES IN ACROSS THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK SO WILL SLOWLY INCREASE CHANCES OF POPS MON THROUGH DAY
7. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT SATURDAY ND SUNDAY MORNING LOWS ARE
RUNNING 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE GENERALLY TEMPO TS FOR THE ATL
AREA AND AHN TAF SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR TS IN THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND PREVAILING TS AS MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVES
IN 00-02Z. CSG AND MCN AREAS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY IMPACTED THIS
EVENING WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION LINE. OVERALL...ANTICIPATING VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH SOME RESTRICTED VSBYS IN THE TS. AHN COULD SEE
SCT-BKN IFR 08-13Z WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON...SWITCHING TO THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. VRB GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED IN CONVECTION TODAY. GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY G18-24KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  85  59  79 /  60  20   5   0
ATLANTA         66  83  59  76 /  60  10   5   0
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  54  71 /  60  20  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    63  83  57  76 /  60  10   5   0
COLUMBUS        68  89  63  82 /  60  10   5   0
GAINESVILLE     64  82  57  75 /  60  10   5   0
MACON           65  89  60  83 /  60  20   5   0
ROME            63  84  57  77 /  50  10   5   0
PEACHTREE CITY  63  85  58  77 /  60  10   5   0
VIDALIA         68  89  65  88 /  40  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31