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328
FXUS62 KFFC 011828
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
228 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

An upper ridge will build over the area tonight and Thursday, with
temperatures continuing to climb. The cumulus field over the area
today is thickest across the S half of the area, with clear skies
across the NE. Early afternoon temperatures ranged from the mid to
upper 70s across the N mountains to the mid 80s across parts of the S
County Warning Area.

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s across
the N to the lower 60s across the S. Skies will be mostly clear.
Some fog development is possible late tonight, but mainly near and SE
of Dublin.

High temperatures on Thursday will be quite warm, with most
locations away from the mountains in the upper 80s to near 90. The
highest elevations in the N should remain in the mid to upper 70s.
The weather will be mostly dry, although there is a slight chance of
a late day thunderstorm near Americus.

Low temperatures Thursday night will be warmer than preceding
nights, ranging from near 60 in the NE mountains to the lower to mid
60s elsewhere. Showers and a few thunderstorms may make it into the
NW corner of the state prior to daybreak.

SEC
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Friday morning through next Tuesday)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Key Messages:

- Pattern shift expected through extended period, with generally wetter
  weather.

Short-term ridge loses its dominance over the region by late week
with an approaching shortwave. Warm weekly temperatures will moderate
slightly (still close to 5 degrees above normal) as moisture influx
and increased precip activity keep highs a touch lower. Although rain
chances begin to rise over north Georgia during the predawn hours on
Friday, best coverage and intensity will be correlated with maximum
daytime heating Friday, and extend into Saturday. Rainfall amounts
appear to be limited to a half inch or less for the majority of the
area, though east central Georgia could see totals approach 1 inch.
At this time, just general thunder is expected with instability just
not enough to support significant development in the isolated to
scattered activity.

In the wake of the shortwave, quasi-zonal flow keeps sufficient
moisture over the region to produce heating-driven afternoon
convection each afternoon through the extended period (especially
Sunday and Monday). This shift will definitely feel more summer-like
as warm temperatures resume and highest coverage and storm intensity
is expected in the afternoon and evening. By midweek, remaining
afternoon and evening convection chances will be highest (though
chance PoPs at best) over north Georgia.

31
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the cycle. CU field may go
broken at times at CSG prior to sunset. Elsewhere, mostly scattered
conditions are expected, with drier air aloft mixing into the cloud
layer in the Atlanta metro area. This should thin cloud coverage,
even as the clouds themselves spread beneath the subsidence
inversion. Due to a wider temperature/dew point spread tonight, not
much in the way of fog formation is expected. Winds will be very
light, with the direction veering to NE at ATL around 01Z. There may
be brief periods when the winds go E of N at ATL later this afternoon
during maximum mixing.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium to high for wind direction, high for all other elements.

SEC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Athens          58  87  62  82 /   0   0   0  30
Atlanta         61  87  66  81 /   0   0  10  40
Blairsville     56  82  59  75 /   0   0  10  60
Cartersville    56  88  64  83 /   0   0  10  50
Columbus        63  90  66  86 /   0  10  10  20
Gainesville     60  85  63  80 /   0   0   0  50
Macon           61  88  65  85 /   0  10   0  30
Rome            56  88  64  81 /   0   0  20  50
Peachtree City  58  88  64  83 /   0   0  10  30
Vidalia         64  89  65  88 /   0  10   0  20
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...SEC
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...SEC