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000
FXUS62 KFFC 210542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
135 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.UPDATE...
OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK WITH A FEW MINOR UPDATES.
HAVE MODIFIED TUESDAY POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL
TRENDS...BUT GENERALLY KEEPING CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONCENTRATED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LATEST MODELS
HAVE ALSO SCALED BACK ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR TUESDAY
MORNING...SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER GRIDS. STILL
EXPECTING PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

31

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 814 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE UPPER LOW
THAT BROUGHT THE PRECIP TO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND IS SLOW TO
EXIT BUT IT IS DOING SO. SOME LINGERING CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE FALL
LINE WHERE THE CAP IS THE WEAKEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG BUT THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY...BECOMING MORE LIKE OUR SUMMER PATTERN WITH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. ALL MODELS FORECAST PLENTY OF CAPE WITH LITTLE
CIN OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S WITH
SOME LOWER 90S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY.

17

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHING ON WEDNESDAY AND COMBINED WITH ASSOCIATED MOIST AND
INSTABILITY WILL GIVE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY N GA AND MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR CENTRAL GA. A WEAK COLD FRONT GETS INTO THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY...POSSIBILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL GIVE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST
MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT DRIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY APPEAR LACKING SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AND WHILE PRECIP
POTENTIAL IS NOT ZERO IT LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES RUNNING WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

01

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 050 THIS MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MVFR STRATUS FORMING THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SOME MVFR VISIBILITY IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 14Z. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EXCEP IN SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. PROBABILITY OF HAVING A THUNDERSTORM
AFFECT THE TAF SITES IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW. SSE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT 5KT OR LESS...WITH SSW EXPECTED
BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH BACK AROUND TO THE SSE
AGAIN BY 23-00Z THIS EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE
ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          64  87  64  84 /  20  30  30  40
ATLANTA         67  86  67  82 /  10  20  20  50
BLAIRSVILLE     58  83  63  75 /  30  40  40  60
CARTERSVILLE    64  88  66  83 /  10  20  20  60
COLUMBUS        69  92  67  89 /  20  20  20  30
GAINESVILLE     64  85  66  81 /  20  30  40  60
MACON           65  89  64  88 /  30  20  20  30
ROME            63  89  66  82 /  10  10  20  70
PEACHTREE CITY  63  88  63  83 /  10  20  20  50
VIDALIA         68  89  68  87 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...41