687
FXUS62 KFFC 021909
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
309 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

The weather today will be characterized by a 500 mb ridge positioned
over the eastern CONUS. Skies are expected to be partly cloudy, with
only scattered fair weather cumulus clouds underneath passing upper
cirrus clouds. Temperatures this afternoon are forecast to rise to
between 8-12 degrees above climatological normals, mainly ranging
from the mid 80s in far north Georgia to the low 90s in portions of
central Georgia. Overnight into Friday morning, the ridge will move
eastward towards the Atlantic coast while a shortwave trough rotates
into the region around an upper low centered over the High Plains.
As this disturbance approaches, a cold front will advance through
the Midwest, gradually slowing as it advances towards Kentucky.
Precipitation ahead of this feature will advance into far north
Georgia on Friday morning, spreading southward over the course of
the day.

By Friday afternoon, likely PoPs are forecast roughly north
of the I-20 corridor, with chance PoPs elsewhere across the area.
With dewpoints in the low 60s and high temperatures forecast to be
in the low to mid 80s in north Georgia and upper 80s in central
Georgia, there will be ample instability to support thunderstorms,
especially in the afternoon. Low-level shear and better dynamics are
expected to stay north of the forecast area and closer to the
frontal boundary. While severe thunderstorms are not forecast on
Friday, isolated stronger storms could be capable of producing gusty
winds.

King

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

The surface high pressure over the western Atlantic
shifting off to the east will help set the stage for a few rounds of
active weather as several shortwave disturbances ripple through the
base of the trough to our west. Saturday, the ridge axis just to our
west will break down as the first shortwave disturbance produces
showers and thunderstorms Saturday for much of the area. A
sufficient amount of surface based CAPE (1000-1500+ J/kg) will be in
place Saturday as isolated storms ahead of more organized clusters
will move across the area. Severe weather is not expected at this
time as limited wind shear and less than optimal lapse rates will
struggle to maintain strong updrafts. However, a few storms could
become strong on Saturday with damaging wind gusts, lightning, and
periods of heavy rainfall being the primary hazards. Another
shortwave on Sunday will produce an additional round of showers and
thunderstorms with a final disturbance on Monday. While scattered to
numerous activity is expected on Sunday and Monday, convective
activity is not expected to be as widespread as Saturday. QPF
through early Tuesday morning will range from a half inch across
western central Georgia and increasing along an axis to the
northeast to around an inch. As the ridge axis beings to reestablish
itself across the east coast, the next disturbance will keep rain
chances relegated to far north Georgia on Tuesday. A low end chance
for precipitation will remain on Wednesday across far north Georgia
Wednesday, but otherwise dry conditions will largely return.

While there will be periods of active weather throughout the long
term forecast and will help lower temperatures over the weekend, the
hottest temperatures of the year are expected by midweek.
Temperatures will remain in the low 80s on Saturday and Sunday,
rebounding by midweek into the low 90s for most locations outside of
the mountains.

KAL

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the day, with
a cu field around 050-060 in place underneath passing upper cirrus
clouds. Winds will be primarily SE at 4-8 kts this afternoon and
through the overnight hours. Winds will are forecast to shift to
SW at 5-10 kts by late Friday morning, around 15Z. Precipitation
will enter far north Georgia by Friday morning and advance
southward through the day. VCSH is being carried starting at 17Z
at ATL, with a PROB30 for -SHRA from 18-00Z on Friday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on timing of precipitation and wind shift.
High confidence on all other elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  83  64  80 /  10  40  50  80
Atlanta         65  84  65  82 /  10  40  50  80
Blairsville     60  76  59  74 /  20  70  70  90
Cartersville    64  84  62  82 /  10  40  60  80
Columbus        65  88  67  86 /   0  30  40  60
Gainesville     63  80  64  79 /  10  50  60  90
Macon           65  87  66  83 /   0  40  40  80
Rome            64  84  62  82 /  20  50  60  80
Peachtree City  65  85  64  83 /  10  30  50  80
Vidalia         66  89  67  84 /   0  20  30  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....KAL
AVIATION...King