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000
FXUS62 KFFC 150813
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
413 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AND RESULT IN
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE
INDICATES SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITH A WEAK IMPULSE TRACKING ALONG
THE NW FLOW ALOFT NEAR NORTH GA...THOUGH IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUT PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO WEST
IS PROGGED TO DAMPEN OUT INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. RESULTANT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA...ALONG WITH A MORE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNALLY AND
OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. PROGGED MUCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 2000 J/KG WITH RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR...AND WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE FORECAST THAN THE
START OF THE WORK WEEK...ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
IN COVERAGE. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAJORITY OF AREA EXCEPT FOR EAST CENTRAL
GA...AND LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE NORTH.

FOR TEMPS...HAVE GONE WITH GENERAL BLEND OF SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AS
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST MET IS A BIT COOLER
THAN PREVIOUS RUN FOR SUNDAY MAX TEMPS LIKELY DUE TO A SLUG OF
STRONGER GULF MOISTURE WITHIN THE SOLUTION...WHICH IS A BIT OF AN
ANOMALY AMONG THE SUITE OF OTHER MODELS. HAVE THEREFORE LEANED
TOWARD OTHER CONSENSUS FOR THAT PERIOD.


BAKER


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL AND MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IS NOT INDICATED ON THE OTHER MODELS. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WHILE WEAK IMPULSES TRAVEL ALONG IT. HAVE INCLUDED AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT MAINLY TOWARD THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK DUE TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND
ALSO AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW.


41


&&


AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FORECAST. MAINLY SCT CLOUDS AT
6-7 KFT TO PERSIST AND SCT CIRRUS DECK COMING IN AFTER 00Z.
INITIAL CALM TO LIGHT EAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING SE UNDER 7
KTS THROUGH REST OF PERIOD.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          88  64  88  68 /   0   5  20  20
ATLANTA         86  68  86  70 /   0   5  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     82  59  83  64 /   0   5  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    87  65  87  69 /   0   5  30  30
COLUMBUS        90  70  89  72 /   0   5  20  20
GAINESVILLE     85  66  85  69 /   0   5  30  20
MACON           89  67  89  71 /   0   5  20  20
ROME            88  64  87  68 /   0   5  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  87  64  86  67 /   0   5  20  20
VIDALIA         90  69  90  72 /   0   5  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...BAKER