National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KFFC 150209 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1009 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND MAIN CHANGE WAS TO DECREASE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE MADE NO
ADJUSTMENTS THERE.

11

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
/ISSUED 249 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
NO MAJOR FCST CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND WED. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL NOT CLOSE TO
ANY RECORD VALUES. RECORD HIGH AT KATL TOMORROW IS 91 AND CURRENT
FCST HAS 83. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND WED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. USED LAMP/MAV/MET/ECMWF
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH 30DAY BIAS CORRECTION DUE TO STRONG
PERFORMANCE IN DRY PATTERNS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN PLAINS WED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THURS. LOW
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND RESULTING LIFT WILL RESULT IN MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE WIDESPREAD BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SLT CHC POPS THURS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. THIS SEEMS TO MATCH MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE
AND HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS SOME DUE TO CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...BUT STILL
EXPECT A PRETTY NICE DAY.

SNELSON

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 249 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND
THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

17

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013/
FEW060 CLOUDS THAT WERE AROUND THIS AFTERNOON ARE DIMINISHING SO
SKC EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SW TO W THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  85  61  86 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         60  83  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  82  58  78 /   5   5  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  60  83 /   0   0  10  20
COLUMBUS        59  86  63  84 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     58  83  62  82 /   0   0  10  20
MACON           53  85  60  86 /   0   0  10  10
ROME            54  84  59  83 /   0   5  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  54  84  59  83 /   0   0  10  20
VIDALIA         57  87  64  85 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11