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000
FXUS62 KFFC 131532 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1132 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013


.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FCST. MAINLY WATCHING FIRE WEATHER PARAMETERS.
FORTUNATELY VEGETATION IS GREEN WHICH WOULD SLOW ANY WILDFIRE
SPREAD. SMOKE WOULD BE A BIG CONCERN IF ANY DEVELOP HOWEVER. ALSO
NOTICING NEW GUIDANCE INDICATING MAX TEMPS APPROACHING 90 ON
WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

SNELSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL ON TRACK FOR 18-25 PCT MIN RH SOUTH OF I-85 AND 22-30 PCT
MIN RH TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING A FEW 22-25 PCT
VALUES. ALSO SEEING SOME 10M WIND GUSTS OF 15-20MPH AND COULD SEE
THEM GET A LITTLE STRONGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT GENERALLY LESS THAN
25MPH CRITERIA. ONLY OTHER THING HOLDING US BACK ON A WARNING ARE
10HR FUELS WHICH AGAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO THRESHOLD OF 6PCT. 10AM
VALUES ALREADY 8-11 PCT AREA WIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT
STAYING WITH FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR NOW.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 731 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN OVER THE STATE
AND WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 60S AND 70S TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL GET BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DIP DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON TODAY.
WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT WILL BE MARGINAL.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ALTHOUGH NE GEORGIA WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF NW
FLOW ALOFT REGIME AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT. LIKELIHOOD OF THIS LOOKS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME...THUS
THE ADVERTISED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
MAX HEATING PER THE GFS. ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH ITS
PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE BUT STILL EVENTUALLY BRINGS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS ON FRIDAY INSTEAD OF THU.
FOR NOW...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKER GFS BUT
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
INTO THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WHILE GFS HAS MORE RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WILL FAVOR THE GFS THIS CYCLE.

DEESE

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 05-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      92 2000     64 1963     69 1933     38 1960
                1935        1954
                1933
   KATL      90 1956     62 1963     70 1933     42 1960
                1911        1882        1905
                1905
   KCSG      92 2000     70 1971     73 2000     41 1960
                1967        1960
                1957
   KMCN      97 2000     64 1927     70 1933     42 1960

AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
WILL SEE WIND GUST TO NEAR 20KT THIS AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          73  43  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         71  49  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     65  39  73  52 /   0   0   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    70  42  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        76  50  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     70  47  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           75  42  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            70  44  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  42  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         79  50  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...31