791
FXUS62 KFFC 042342 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
742 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

At a glance:

    - Continued waves of showers and thunderstorms expected
      through Sunday

    - "Cooler" today across north and east Georgia, temperatures
      rebound tomorrow

Similar to yesterday, conditions at the lower levels remain
relatively benign, with the western fringes of a surface high
overspreading the Southeast. At the mid-levels, our train of
shortwaves continues, packing a bit more oomph than yesterday
thanks to meager negative tilts and slightly higher amplitudes.
After a brief lull following out rainy start to Saturday,
expecting an uptick in afternoon convective activity both today
and Sunday, aided partially by the shortwave trough axis swinging
through. Thunderstorms today may become weakly organized into
quasi-lines along any lingering outflow boundaries/new outflow
boundaries from earliest storms, especially south of I-20.

MUCAPE looks to reach into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, but
unimpressive shear (<20kt bulk) will preclude meaningful chances
for widespread severe weather; however, a few storms could become
strong to marginally severe. On top of that, PWATs creeping north
of 1.5" areawide puts us at approximately the 90th percentile for
early May per the SPC`s sounding climatology. Any storms that form
are likely to be slow-moving, and will be capable of producing
locally heavy rainfall, ponding on roads, and perhaps nuisance
flooding.

Highs today will be slightly cooler than yesterday along and east
of I-16/I-75 thanks to increased cloud cover and convective
coverage, in the upper-60s to 70s. Elsewhere, expect another day
in the 80s. Sunday, marginally unseasonably warm conditions return
(5-8 degrees above average), with highs in the 70s for the higher
elevations in northeast Georgia and in the 80s to near 90
everywhere else.

96


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday morning through next Friday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

As the extended period begins on Monday, a shortwave trough will
continue to move northeastward through a quasi-zonal mid level
flow pattern, from the Tennessee Valley towards the central
Appalachians. As the axis of the shortwave moves north of Georgia,
it will provide forcing for showers and thunderstorms across the
forecast area. Coverage of thunderstorms will be diurnally
enhanced in the afternoon hours. The combination of forcing ahead
of the shortwave, diurnal instability, and precipitable water
values ranging from 1.4 to 1.7 inches will be sufficient for at
least likely PoPs across the majority of the forecast area by
Monday afternoon. Some convective is also likely to lingering
after sunset and into Monday night. Low-level wind shear and
dynamic support appears that they will be located nearest to the
axis of the shortwave as it passes north of the forecast area. As
such, a widespread severe weather threat is not anticipated, but a
few storms each day could become strong and capable of producing
locally heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning.

A relatively drier period is expected on Tuesday into Wednesday
with a mid-level ridge building over the Southeast. Temperatures
will gradually warm under the ridge, with highs climbing a couple
of degrees each day and reaching into the upper 80s in north
Georgia and low 90s in central Georgia on Wednesday. These
temperatures will be between 8-12 degrees above climatological
normals. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
forecast to be confined to the far northern tier each afternoon on
Tuesday and into Wednesday.

By Thursday, an upper level trough will extend from the High
Plains to the Four Corners region while subtropical ridging
strengthens over the Gulf of Mexico. With a tightening pressure
gradient between these features, much of the Southeast will be
under strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary will advance southward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley
region. A series of disturbances traversing the upper level flow
is anticipated to overrun the front, which will help increase PoPs
and organize thunderstorms across northern portions of Georgia.
With a warm and unstable airmass across much of the Southeast
lending to plentiful SBCAPE and increased deep-layer bulk shear
ahead of the advancing front, the potential for severe weather
associated with convective complexes will need to be monitored for
Thursday into Friday.

King


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 723 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

Have removed TEMPOs for TSRA at all TAF sites as confidence in
convection at any one site is relatively low (although elsewhere
across N and CNTRL GA, isolated TSRA are occurring). Expect
FEW/SCT mid-level clouds (~060 to ~100) to stick around until
lower CIGs arrive overnight. IFR CIGs and MVFR/IFR VIS are
expected from ~09z to ~15z, with areas of lower CIGs/VIS PSBL.
Conditions will improve with a SCT/BKN low-VFR cloud deck tomorrow
afternoon. Winds will be light/VRB to calm overnight, increasing
slightly to 3-8 kts out of the SSE to SSW tomorrow afternoon.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on evolution of CIGs/VIS and timing/coverage of
precip tomorrow. High confidence on all other elements.

Martin


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  84  63  81 /  50  30  40  70
Atlanta         64  84  65  83 /  30  30  50  70
Blairsville     58  79  60  76 /  30  50  50  90
Cartersville    62  85  63  83 /  30  30  40  80
Columbus        65  88  67  88 /  20  40  30  50
Gainesville     64  82  64  80 /  30  40  50  80
Macon           63  86  66  84 /  30  50  40  70
Rome            62  86  63  85 /  30  30  50  80
Peachtree City  62  85  64  84 /  30  40  40  70
Vidalia         65  87  67  87 /  50  50  40  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....King
AVIATION...Martin