National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS62 KFFC 111138 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE AS WE REACH SUNRISE. THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS INTO THE CWA. THIS WILL PUT US IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. WITH THE LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN THIS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY
AND MAV/MET GUIDANCE IS BASICALLY NIL IN TERMS OF POPS. THERE IS
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THOUGH THAT REMAINS IN PLACE AND WITH A VERY
WEAK VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CWA...THE SREF AND ECMWF BOTH
WANT TO SHOW SOME DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...LOCAL
WRF IS TRYING TO SHOW SOME ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA TODAY. OVERALL CHANCE OF PRECIP IS LOW FOR TODAY AND WITH
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE...THINK THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. GIVEN THIS...DECIDED TO GO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST AND
LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST /ABOUT A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE/. IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...WEST GEORGIA COULD SEE AN
ISOLD STORM DEVELOP. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...UPWARDS OF 2000
J/KG...TO SEE ISOLD STRONG STORMS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
EAST GEORGIA. WITH LESS CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY...SHOULD ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO REALIZE MORE OF THE INSTABILITY. BUFR SOUNDINGS DEPICT BOTH
A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. BY WEDNESDAY...SMALL PERTURBATIONS MOVING
THROUGH THE NW FLOW WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA AND WILL ONCE
AGAIN ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

QUITE A WARM-UP EXPECTED TODAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND CLOUD COVERAGE DECREASES. LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE TODAY WHICH BRINGS THE LOW 90S TO MOST
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA AND UPPER 80S AND SOME LOWER 90S TO NORTH
GEORGIA. MAX TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE EVEN MORE FOR WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
TO MID 90S EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...EXCEPT FOR
THE MOUNTAINS. NEITHER ATL OR AHN HAVE HIT 90 DEGREES THIS
YEAR...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BOTH SEE THEIR FIRST 90 DEGREE DAY
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

11

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 350 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR CENTRAL GA AT DAYS
END. FORECAST MLCAPES IN THE 1500-2500 RANGE. THIS WILL GIVE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING. FOR THE MOST PART THE AFFECTS OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE S OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH PRECIP CHANCES LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. 500MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING E FOR
SATURDAY WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOW. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL
ON SUNDAY AND ENCROACHES ON N GA WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND LOW
PRECIP CHANCES OVER N GA IN THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE
ENERGY TO AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
LINE OF CONVECTION STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHEAST GEORGIA...HEADING
INTO THE AHN AREA. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LIGHTNING WITH THIS SO LEFT
TS OUT OF AHN. VERY ISOLATED CELLS HEADING TOWARDS ATL SITES AND
NOT SURE THEY WILL EVEN MAKE IT TO THE NORTHERN SITES SO LEFT ANY
MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF TAF. COULD SEE AN ISOLD TSRA NEAR
ATL...MCN...CSG TODAY BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. CIGS IN THE ATL AREA
HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO SCT OUT. HOLDING ONTO IFR AT ATL UNTIL
15Z...BUT COULD SEE THE LOWER CIG SCT OUT EARLIER.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          90  69  95  71 /  40  10  20  10
ATLANTA         88  73  93  73 /  10  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     85  64  88  67 /  20  10  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    90  69  93  70 /  20  10  20  10
COLUMBUS        92  73  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     88  70  91  71 /  40  10  20  10
MACON           92  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
ROME            92  68  94  70 /  20  10  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  91  68  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
VIDALIA         93  73  95  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...11