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000
FXUS62 KFFC 141849
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
249 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO MAJOR FCST CONCERNS THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST TONIGHT AND WED. TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL BUT WILL NOT CLOSE TO
ANY RECORD VALUES. RECORD HIGH AT KATL TOMORROW IS 91 AND CURRENT
FCST HAS 83. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT AND WED WITH HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. USED LAMP/MAV/MET/ECMWF
MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH 30DAY BIAS CORRECTION DUE TO STRONG
PERFORMANCE IN DRY PATTERNS.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SRN PLAINS WED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THURS. LOW
LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND RESULTING LIFT WILL RESULT IN MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR AFTERNOON DEEP CONVECTION. COVERAGE WILL
NOT BE WIDESPREAD BUT SUFFICIENT FOR SLT CHC POPS THURS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY OVER NORTH GA. THIS SEEMS TO MATCH MOST MED RANGE GUIDANCE
AND HIRES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODEL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS. HAVE
DROPPED TEMPS SOME DUE TO CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHRA/TSRA...BUT STILL
EXPECT A PRETTY NICE DAY.

SNELSON


.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. INCREASING H5 HEIGHTS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPS WARM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND
THEREFORE NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SSW WINDS AT 5-8KT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE VRB AND 5KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 6-9KT AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          55  85  61  82 /   0   0   5  20
ATLANTA         60  83  64  80 /   0   0  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     53  82  58  78 /   5   5  10  20
CARTERSVILLE    55  82  60  79 /   0   0  10  20
COLUMBUS        59  86  63  82 /   0   0  10  10
GAINESVILLE     58  83  62  79 /   0   0  10  20
MACON           53  85  60  83 /   0   0  10  10
ROME            54  84  59  80 /   0   5  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  54  84  59  80 /   0   0  10  20
VIDALIA         57  87  64  87 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...SNELSON