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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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000 FXUS62 KFFC 122326 AAA AFDFFC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 725 PM EDT SUN MAY 12 2013 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... SECONDARY COLD FRONT CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS WELL DEPICTED BY A CU FIELD. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER AIR HAS SETTLED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN GA AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON TAP FOR THE CWFA FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CIRRUS SHIELD SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM A WIDESPREAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE OVERNIGHT MIN TEMP FORECAST. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOWS WERE A BIT COOLER...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GA. A FEW MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THIS...ESPECIALLY DOWN SOUTH WHERE THE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL BE THICKER. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW CU EXPECTED. TOOK BLEND FOR TEMPS. NLISTEMAA .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM. BDL PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WESTERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN VERY DRY AIR...PWS LESS THAN 0.50 INCH. THIS WILL ALLOW MIN TEMPS TO REMAIN AROUND 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON NIGHT WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO A FEW RECORD LOWS ESPECIALLY IN THE MCN AREA. A RAPID WARM-UP IS STILL EXPECTED TUE THROUGH THU AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MIN AND MAX TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL RETURN TO NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO LINE UP BETTER IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SETUP WITH A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION OVER THE OH VALLEY THU THROUGH SAT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. A GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS EACH DAY. A MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING PATTERN. 16 && .FIRE WEATHER... RH VALUES WILL DIP DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT WILL BE MARGINAL. ALSO...FUEL MOISTURES ARE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON AND RANGE IN THE SEVEN TO TEN PERCENT RANGE. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON... ESPECIALLY IF FUELS DRAMATICALLY DRY AND RH VALUES GO LOWER. && .CLIMATE... RECORDS FOR 05-12 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 96 1911 59 1960 70 1933 40 1960 KATL 92 1916 57 1960 70 1933 42 1960 1905 KCSG 94 2011 65 1960 72 1967 45 1969 1952 KMCN 96 2011 66 1960 71 1955 40 1969 RECORDS FOR 05-13 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 92 2000 64 1963 69 1933 38 1960 1935 1954 1933 KATL 90 1956 62 1963 70 1933 42 1960 1911 1882 1905 1905 KCSG 92 2000 70 1971 73 2000 41 1960 1967 1960 1957 KMCN 97 2000 64 1927 70 1933 42 1960 RECORDS FOR 05-14 MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 94 1933 54 1954 69 1933 40 1917 KATL 91 1881 56 1954 72 1995 41 1917 1905 KCSG 94 1998 66 1954 74 1995 43 1960 1967 KMCN 96 1967 62 1954 73 1905 42 1997 && .AVIATION...00Z UPDATE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST...DIMINISHING TO 4-8KT BY 04Z THEN INCREASING AGAIN AFTER 14Z...REACHING 8-12KT WITH GUSTS 17-20KT AFTER 18Z. //ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE... HIGH. 20 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ATHENS 43 69 43 78 / 0 0 0 0 ATLANTA 45 68 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 BLAIRSVILLE 39 62 39 73 / 0 0 0 5 CARTERSVILLE 43 67 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 COLUMBUS 48 73 50 82 / 0 0 0 0 GAINESVILLE 42 67 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 MACON 45 72 42 79 / 0 0 0 0 ROME 42 69 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 PEACHTREE CITY 43 69 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 VIDALIA 52 74 50 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA LONG TERM....BDL AVIATION...NLISTEMAA
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