Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 220207
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1007 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024



...Evening Update...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Opted to make some updates to the temperature forecast for Friday
on the evening shift. Throughout the remainder of the night,
expect a strong (1030+ mb) surface high pressure to slide into
place across Pennsylvania, sufficient to set up brief (but potent)
wedging. With increasing and overspreading moisture -- associated
with a lobe of low pressure sliding eastward along the Gulf Coast
-- resulting in increasing isentropically-forced rainfall
 tomorrow, our burgeoning cool dome should be reinforced
 throughout the day. As such, have opted to blend in cooler
 ConsShort and NBM10 to our temperature forecast, dropping highs
 north of a line extending from Columbus to Macon by several
 degrees for tomorrow. As it stands, areas around and north of the
 Atlanta metro will likely not get out of the 50s on Friday, and
 may trend a degree or two cooler depending on the intensity of
 precipitation.

96


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Key Message:

 - Widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected in the
region between Friday and Saturday.

 - Severe weather is not anticipated Friday or Saturday.

 - Though not zero, the risk of flooding remains minimal with this
event.

Through Saturday Evening:

Rain will be the name of the game during this period as the next
upper level trough and associated surface low track through the
Southeast. Trends from the last several days of model runs remain
relatively unchanged. Northern and central Georgia should remain in
the cool sector north of the warm front and surface low, and this
should favor widespread rainfall. Isolated thunderstorms could occur
over central Georgia between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning
when limited elevated instability may exist north of the warm front.
Additional thunderstorm activity could occur, especially in east
central Georgia, Saturday afternoon and evening as the warm front
nudges north and the surface low moves through. A strong storm or
two can`t be ruled out during this window on Saturday, especially if
we get some partial clearing. From Interstate 20 northward
(including the Atlanta Metro), thunderstorms are unlikely with this
event. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches should be widespread between
Friday and Saturday. Isolated totals over 2 inches may occur across
central Georgia where lift associated with the warm front and
limited CAPE may conspire to produce better rain rates. Given the
more prolonged duration of the event (24-36 hours) and relatively
modest rain totals, flooding is not expected to be a widespread
concern.

A tightening surface pressure gradient between a surface high off
the Mid-Atlantic coast and the approaching surface low should drive
breezy eastelry winds during the day on Friday. Sustained winds in
the 8 to 18 mph range are expected, with gusts of 20 to 30 mph
occurring Friday afternoon. Isolated higher gusts (near 40 mph) can
be anticipated along the ridgelines in northeast Georgia. Winds
should weaken on Saturday.

Widespread rainfall and cloud cover should bring notably cooler
weather to the region on Friday. High temperatures should pull back
by 8 to 14 degrees compared today. Look for this to produce
widespread high temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Less rainfall
and a few peaks of afternoon sun should help temperature climb back
into the mid/upper 60s on Saturday.

Albright

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday morning through next Wednesday)
Issued at 219 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

The better half of the weekend weather wise will arrive on Sunday as
the trough axis slides east of the area and ridging returns. This
will bring a return to sunny conditions and seasonally mild high
temperatures from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. This same general
pattern will hold through Monday as surface ridging anchored down
the East Coast maintains its hold. High clouds will begin to
increase on Monday with a decent easterly breeze keeping things
relatively cool.

By Tuesday, the broad trough across the Central Plains will make
further eastward progress with southwest flow aloft on its leading
edge pushing into our region. Meanwhile, the surface cold front will
make steady eastward progress into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday
as the associated surface low quickly lifts into the Great Lakes
region. PoPs will begin to increase from west to east on Tuesday as
the front approaches the area. Forecast details concerning
thunderstorm potential remain muddled at this juncture, though
limited indicated surface instability presently points to a limited
risk. Still, some of the thunderstorm threat will also hinge on
whether an additional weak surface low lifts northeast from the Gulf
coast as indicated by some guidance. Additional forecast uncertainty
hinges on how quickly the surface front will kick east of the area
with some guidance clearing things out by Wednesday while other
members hang the front across the area into Wednesday. At this
point, kept with NBM PoPs holding in the chance range into
Wednesday. Temperatures look to remain fairly close to seasonal
norms through the period.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 737 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Deteriorating conds expected thru the TAF pd. Cigs initially VFR
will drop to MVFR by 15-16Z, and then to IFR by 17-18Z. -SHRA/-RA
to begin 14-15Z for northern TAF sites, accompanied by MVFR vsbys
in BR. TSRA psbl 20-24Z CSG/MCN with a non-zero but very low
confidence chc for ATL due to cloud cover. Winds will be elevated
out of the E/ESE at 8-14kts with gusts to 20-25kts psbl.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Low confidence TSRA chances northern TAF sites.
High confidence all other elements.

96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  59  54  68 /   0  90  90  60
Atlanta         54  58  55  65 /  10  90  90  40
Blairsville     48  55  49  60 /   0  90 100  50
Cartersville    53  60  52  65 /   0  90  90  40
Columbus        56  65  57  68 /  20  90  90  30
Gainesville     52  57  53  66 /   0  90  90  50
Macon           56  64  58  68 /  20  90  90  60
Rome            52  60  51  65 /  10  90  90  30
Peachtree City  54  59  55  65 /  10  90  90  40
Vidalia         56  67  60  73 /  20  90  90  80

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...96


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