000
FXUS62 KFFC 161754
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/

.UPDATE...
MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SCATTER SOME CLOUD COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
BASED ON UPSTREAM VIS SAT OBS AND LIMIT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS A BIT
FARTHER NORTH FROM LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO LOWERED SOME MAX TEMPS BY
A FEW DEGREES BASED ON SOME LIMITED SOLAR RADIATION DUE TO MORNING
CLOUDS. OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK AND
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013/
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A VERY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGING
SEVERE WEATHER TO TEXAS THIS MORNING. GA IS SEEING SOME INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM BUT NOTHING MORE THAN THAT AT THE
MOMENT. THERE IS STILL A WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
STATE WHICH WILL KEEP GA PROTECTED FROM THE DEEPER CONVECTION
MOVING EAST OUT OF TX TODAY. THE MAIN WAVE WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TODAY THEN START MOVING NE AS IT RUNS INTO
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. IT WILL MOVE INTO TENNESSEE FRIDAY AND THEN
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY 00Z SAT. WITH GA BEING IN THE MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WE WILL STILL SEE SOME
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY
SEVERE STORMS IN THE SHORT TERM. CAPES...LAPSE RATES...AND LIS ALL
PEAK AROUND 18Z TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAY TIME HEATING BUT THERE IS
VERY LITTLE SHEAR SO ONLY EXPECTING BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA WILL REMAIN
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD BY TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE CWFA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY...SO HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN GA...CLOSEST TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER...WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF....SOME SURFACE
INSTABILITY...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL
ALOFT...HAVE ALSO RAISED POPS TO LOW END SCT/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWFA. DO THINK CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AS THE LOW MEANDERS OFF TO THE EAST.

POPS WILL REMAIN SCT/ISO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE ONLY REAL SURFACE MECHANISM TO FOCUS
PRECIP WILL BE TO THE NORTH...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW COULD
ENHANCE ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. THE WARM
FRONT/STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FROPA A LITTLE...WITH THE FRONT COMING
THROUGH THE CWFA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD. INITIAL
SCATTERING OUT OF CIGS LOOK TO ALLOW FOR MAINLY SCT AT 6 KFT
THROUGH AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...THEN MID LEVEL CIGS BUILDING IN
NEAR 12 KFT AFTER NEAR 03Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE SW AT NEAR 7 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON... THEN BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND SSW
FRIDAY AT 5-7 KTS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF KATL AND
NEARBY SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  60  84  62 /  20  20  20  20
ATLANTA         82  64  84  64 /  10  10  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     79  55  78  58 /  30  20  40  40
CARTERSVILLE    80  59  82  61 /  20  20  30  30
COLUMBUS        83  64  86  64 /  10  10  10  10
GAINESVILLE     83  61  82  62 /  20  20  30  30
MACON           86  60  86  62 /  10  10  10  10
ROME            80  60  83  61 /  20  20  30  30
PEACHTREE CITY  84  60  83  61 /  10  10  20  20
VIDALIA         88  64  87  65 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01/BAKER
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...BAKER