-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KFFC 160549 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
SUNDAY...OPENING THE REGION UP TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADDITIONAL
GULF MOISTURE AND RETURN OF DIURNAL AND OROGRAPHIC SUPPORTED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...WITH LOW END
CHANCE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA.

FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS...CONTINUED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND
BUT CONTINUED TO TEND TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV...NOTING THE
SAME TRENDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST.

31

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAVE COME TOGETHER IN THE SOLUTION
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE
CWA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE WESTERLIES DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH
A SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE
AND WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY OF THE
SHORTWAVES...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SHORT WAVES. WILL THEREFORE RAISE POPS TO
LIKELY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AFTERWARDS A WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. WITH WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW...DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
HAS THIS HANDLED WELL.

17

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 413 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
BY SUNDAY NIGHT THE UPPER FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL AND MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED AGAIN ACROSS THE CWA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROVIDE SOME FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS DEVELOPS A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO SOME
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS IS NOT INDICATED ON THE OTHER MODELS. THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WHILE WEAK IMPULSES TRAVEL ALONG IT. HAVE INCLUDED AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. LOWERED THE MAX TEMPERATURES A BIT MAINLY TOWARD THE LAST HALF
OF THE WEEK DUE TO VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS AND
ALSO AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING AGAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT E-SE WIND TONIGHT BECOMING
SSW AT 5-8KT AFTER 15Z TODAY. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW
SINCE PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO BE CONFIDENT ABOUT WHICH SITES MAY
BE AFFECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

41
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  89  69  88 /   0  20  30  50
ATLANTA         68  86  71  86 /   0  20  30  50
BLAIRSVILLE     60  84  64  81 /   0  30  50  60
CARTERSVILLE    65  88  69  88 /   0  20  40  60
COLUMBUS        70  87  72  89 /   0  20  30  40
GAINESVILLE     66  85  69  86 /   0  20  40  60
MACON           66  89  70  89 /   0  20  30  40
ROME            64  89  69  89 /   0  30  40  60
PEACHTREE CITY  64  86  69  87 /   0  20  30  40
VIDALIA         69  88  72  91 /   0  10  20  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...41