-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KFFC 191749 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
145 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF ATLANTA-ATHENS THIS MORNING SHOULD
SINK INTO CENTRAL GA TODAY...WITH SOME DRYING TAKING PLACE OVER THE
NORTH. ANOTHER SERIES OF SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY TODAY INTO THURSDAY...GIVING THE CENTRAL ZONES A
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM
ACROSS THE NORTH...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN CAPE AND NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDEX VALUES SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BETTER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA ON THURSDAY AND HAVE
CONTINUED WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN
ZONES AND CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF MAV/MET
TEMPERATURES WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS WITH MAIN FEATURES OF THE
LONG TERM. MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
UPPER RIDGING AND A 1025-MB SFC HIGH SLIDING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST RESULTING IN HYBRID CAD SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH LITTLE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEDGE...MAIN IMPACT LOOKS TO BE TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST AND FOCUS MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG OR NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF THE WEDGE. HAVE
CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
AREA...AND IN PORTIONS OF THE FAR NORTH FOR ANY OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT...OTHERWISE SLIGHT POPS ELSEWHERE. ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT...EVEN IF
SLIGHT CHANCE.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE DISCREPANCIES ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE GFS BRINGS A SLUG OF ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND LINGERS ON THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE LIMITED. HAVE DECIDED TO
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW END AND KEEP BEST CHANCES ALONG SOUTHERN TIER
AND FAR NORTH UNTIL MORE CONSENSUS IS REACHED AND CAN JUSTIFY ANY
RAISING OF POPS IN THE FUTURE. TEMPS SHOULD GENERALLY BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM DAY TO DAY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

BAKER

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
18Z UPDATE...
CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING FROM MVFR TO VFR
AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO BE VFR BY
19Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH 09Z...OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. MFVR CEILINGS WILL SPREAD BACK
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z...AND
THEN LIFT BACK TO VFR BETWEEN 13-17Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG WILL
PRODUCE SOME MVFR...WITH ISOLATED IFR...VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 07Z AND
14Z. ONLY TAF SITES WHERE I HAVE ANY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE
KMCN AND KAHN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
18-00Z WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY
18-02Z. WINDS ARE A BIT PROBLEMATIC AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL TURN WINDS NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT WIND DIRECTIONS WILL VARY SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST THROUGH 21Z AS THE
BUILDING RIDGE STRUGGLES AGAINST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIXING DOWN
FROM THE MID-LEVELS. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 8KT OR LESS MOST AREAS
THROUGH 00Z...DECREASING TO 6KT OR LESS AFTER. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z WITH 7-12KT COMMON BY 14Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

20
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          85  67  87  68 /  20  20  20  10
ATLANTA         84  68  86  70 /  20  20  20  10
BLAIRSVILLE     83  60  83  64 /  20  20  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    87  65  89  68 /  20  20  20  10
COLUMBUS        86  69  89  71 /  40  30  30  20
GAINESVILLE     84  65  86  68 /  20  20  20  20
MACON           88  68  88  69 /  40  30  30  20
ROME            87  63  89  67 /  20  20  20  10
PEACHTREE CITY  85  64  87  68 /  20  20  20  10
VIDALIA         87  71  88  71 /  50  50  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41