Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49

000
FXUS62 KFFC 241826
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
226 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Short term forecast is fairly benign as upper level ridging over the
state is sandwiched by two low pressure systems. The shifted ridge
axis has allowed for weak surface ridging over northeast Georgia.
Dry conditions have been reinforced by the continental airmass
today, and afternoon relative humidity has dropped to 25 percent
over north and northeast Georgia. The 10hr fuel moistures are still
around 10-11 percent this afternoon, so we continue to hold off on a
Fire Danger Statement at this time.

Low pressure over the Plains will make a slow advancement eastward
into Monday as a squeezed high pressure ridge slows its progress.
Pressure gradient winds will be the primary forecast concern Monday.
A Wind Advisory has already been issued for the early Monday hours
as winds flirt with the trigger criteria, and although there may be
some periods of sub-criteria winds, models continue to indicate
an increase again by Monday afternoon as that pressure gradient
tightens. As a result, the Wind Advisory has been extended in
time, and is now in effect through 12UTC/8AM Tuesday. It may be
necessary to extend it further in time for the higher elevations,
but this decision will be made with the later forecast packages.
Cloud cover is expected to increase through the day Monday as tail
of moisture from the parent low swings through the Gulf States
and approaches Georgia. This moisture axis will be the initial
forecast feature in the extended period.

ALthough near normal temperatures are expected overnight tonight,
cooler highs (60s) are expected Monday with most areas 4-7 degrees
below climatology. Mild lows continue into Tuesday with the
influence of clouds and approaching rain.

31

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday morning through next Saturday)
Issued at 223 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

Key Messages:

 - Another storm system will bring rain and thunderstorms to the
region between Tuesday and Wednesday.

 - An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible in the region by
Wednesday.

 - Dry weather and a warming trend are expected next weekend.

Tuesday Through Thursday:

A strong upper level trough will move out of the Plains and through
the Eastern U.S. during this period. The primary surface low and
core of the upper level trough should lift from the Central Plains
into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. This should take the coldest air
aloft to our north and subsequently limit instability in Georgia
Tuesday and Tuesday night. So despite having a significant amount of
shear in the region, the severe weather risk remains low on Tuesday
do to a lack of CAPE. Instability could creep up slightly Tuesday
night as low 60s dewpoints slide into central Georgia, but lapse
rates still look insufficient for a significant severe weather risk.
A secondary shortwave should slide out of the 4 Corners and through
the Southeast between Wednesday and Thursday. Colder air aloft
should arrive with this feature. However, for now the majority of
the GEFS and EPS members push a cold front through Georgia before
this features arrives. This pushes surface dewpoints down and limits
instability. If dewpoints don`t fall as much as the guidance
projects, then instability could be sufficient to generate showers
or thunderstorms (especially over east central Georgia) between
Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Overall confidence in
precipitation between Wednesday and Thursday is low. Thus for now
the highest (~80%) precipitation chances in our forecast remain
focused between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Total
forecast rainfall through Thursday remains in the 1 to 2 inch range.

Forecast temperatures Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look like they
may bounce around a bit in north Georgia. On Tuesday a wedge front
may hinder temperatures in northeast Georgia. Temperatures may
rebound Wednesday, then CAA and northeast winds may limit
temperatures again Thursday. This may lead to highs in the 60s
Tuesday, low 70s Wednesday, then 60s again on Thursday. Highs in
central Georgia should be near or above 70 all three days.

Friday into the Weekend:

Weak upper level ridging and surface high pressure should prevail
during this period. Consequently guidance from the EPS and GEFS
ensembles strongly favors dry and warm weather. By Sunday high
temperatures in the region may approach 80 degrees.

Albright

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Increasing clouds
are expected into the overnight period. Easterly winds will remain
8-12KT with gusts to 18-22KT for the ATL-area TAF sites. E-ESE
winds will increase to 13-16KT after 04-06Z, and remain through
the day Monday. BKN-OVC high clouds with some SCT low VFR expected
after 13Z Monday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          40  61  49  64 /   0   0  20  80
Atlanta         42  62  53  64 /   0   0  40  90
Blairsville     36  55  44  55 /   0   0  50  90
Cartersville    42  62  52  64 /   0   0  60  90
Columbus        47  69  59  71 /   0   0  30  80
Gainesville     40  59  49  58 /   0   0  30  90
Macon           43  66  56  73 /   0   0  10  60
Rome            42  63  52  65 /   0   0  70  90
Peachtree City  42  64  54  67 /   0   0  40  90
Vidalia         44  67  55  79 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030>032-041>043.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....Albright
AVIATION...31


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.