-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KFFC 140803
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
403 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

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CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE THE STATE THIS
MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GA PRECIPITATION FREE
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. TEMPS ARE BEGINNING TO REBOUND WITH HIGHS
TODAY EXPECTED IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S. HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IN THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
50S. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
TODAY WHICH WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20S AND 30S TODAY.



01


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH HAD
BEEN ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
YIELD WARMING TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.

THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
DURING MAX HEATING PER THE GFS. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY
SLOWER WITH ITS PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE BUT STILL EVENTUALLY
BRINGS DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS ON FRIDAY
INSTEAD OF THU. FOR NOW...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND
QUICKER GFS BUT WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AS WELL.

ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW THAT BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE AREA
WILL ALSO FEATURE COLD TEMPS ALOFT WITH -15C VALUES AT 500MB.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY LOOKS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THIS
POINT...MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ALOFT COULD YIELD STRONGER
UPDRAFT CORES AND ELEVATED HAIL AND DOWNBURST POTENTIAL.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES INTO THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WHILE GFS HAS
MORE RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WILL FAVOR THE
GFS THIS CYCLE.


DEESE
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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
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RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FOR THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REQUIRE ANOTHER FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT TODAY.
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&&


.AVIATION...
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06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW BUT THEY WILL TURN TO THE W TO SW AFTER 12Z.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5-10KT RANGE. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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ATHENS          79  54  88  61 /   0   0   0  10
ATLANTA         77  59  84  64 /   0   0   0  10
BLAIRSVILLE     75  53  82  57 /   0   0   0  10
CARTERSVILLE    77  54  86  58 /   0   0   0  10
COLUMBUS        82  59  85  62 /   0   0   0  10
GAINESVILLE     76  57  84  62 /   0   0   0  10
MACON           79  53  87  60 /   0   0   0  10
ROME            77  55  86  58 /   0   0   0  10
PEACHTREE CITY  79  53  85  58 /   0   0   0  10
VIDALIA         81  56  86  63 /   0   0   0   5
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&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01