840
FXUS62 KFFC 292340
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
740 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024



...New 00Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

 - Showers and thunderstorms will return on Tuesday as a shortwave
   trough traverses the area.

 - A couple of stronger storms are possible, though a significant
   severe threat is not expected.

Surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and ridging
aloft keep the area dry through the remainder of the day into
tonight. That will begin to change in short order, however, as a
shortwave trough approaches the area by tomorrow morning. An ongoing
broken line of showers and thunderstorms will initially push into
northwest Georgia during the predawn hours Tuesday and progress
eastward through midday. Given fairly limited morning instability,
CAMs generally support the notion of a gradual weakening trend
through late morning.

By afternoon, recovering SBCAPE should support the redevelopment of
additional scattered and thunderstorms. HREF mean SBCAPE looks to
max out over 1000 J/kg in Middle Georgia during the afternoon,
potentially supportive of a few stronger thunderstorms. Weak shear
and overall dynamics will limit the severe threat, but an isolated
storm could potentially reach marginally severe limits and produce
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps small hail. Generally a
quarter to half on inch rainfall totals are probable, though locally
higher totals are possible within heavier thunderstorms. Activity
will then gradually wane and depart eastward by the evening as the
wave exits east.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

 - Very warm and mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the week
   into the weekend.

The departing shortwave will give way to upper level ridging through
the remainder of the work week. Other than isolated lingering
showers and thunderstorms in the SE on Wed, this ridge should usher
in a couple of days of dry weather. This will also be the warmest
stretch of the long term period, with temperatures rising well into
80s across most non-mountainous areas. In fact, some locations will
rise above 90 degrees (with the best chance on Thursday afternoon
near and S of Macon). These highs will will be about 8 to 12 degrees
above normal.

The ridge will begin to break down on Friday as a short wave moves
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The combination of the
approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist air in place will
bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the
area (with the best chances across N and N central GA. With the
fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm activity is expected to
remain mostly diurnal in nature, with widespread organized
thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High temperatures will
still be about 5 degrees above normal.

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
VFR ceilings to start this TAF set with MVFR ceilings and
precipitation moving in around sunrise Tue. Will see showers in
the morning with thunderstorms developing in the afternoon. VSBYs
should stay in the VFR to MVFR range with the precip in the area
but could see a brief period of IFR VSBYs with any stronger storms
Fri afternoon. Winds will start out of the SE then turn to the SW
around sunrise with the precip pushing in. Wind speeds will stay
in the 5-10kt range with some higher gust in and around any
afternoon storms.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          60  79  58  84 /   0  70  40   0
Atlanta         62  77  60  84 /  30  80  20   0
Blairsville     57  71  54  79 /  40  90  40   0
Cartersville    61  76  57  83 /  60  90  10   0
Columbus        65  82  62  87 /  10  70  10   0
Gainesville     61  75  59  84 /  20  80  30   0
Macon           62  82  61  86 /   0  70  30  10
Rome            62  77  57  84 /  70  90  10   0
Peachtree City  62  79  58  84 /  20  70  20   0
Vidalia         62  86  65  87 /   0  40  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...01