-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS62 KFFC 131131
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
731 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013



.PREV DISCUSSION... 
-- Changed Discussion --
/ISSUED 450 AM EDT MON MAY 13 2013/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN OVER THE STATE
AND WILL KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WITH HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED IN THE 60S AND 70S TODAY. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT
WILL GET BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S. DEWPOINTS WILL BE VERY LOW FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES WILL DIP DOWN WELL INTO THE 20S DURING THE DAY ON TODAY.
WINDS WILL STAY BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT WILL BE MARGINAL.
A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

01

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE REGION FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL
PROMOTE A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME AND ALONG WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 FOR
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALSO
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY ALTHOUGH NE GEORGIA WILL BE ON PERIPHERY OF NW
FLOW ALOFT REGIME AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY UPSTREAM MCS
DEVELOPMENT. LIKELIHOOD OF THIS LOOKS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME...THUS
THE ADVERTISED POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
AREA WITH SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA DURING
MAX HEATING PER THE GFS. ECMWF SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH ITS
PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE BUT STILL EVENTUALLY BRINGS DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH MAIN FOCUS ON FRIDAY INSTEAD OF THU.
FOR NOW...LEANING TOWARD THE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND QUICKER GFS BUT
WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
INTO THE WEEKEND AS ECMWF KEEPS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA
WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE WHILE GFS HAS MORE RIDGING ALOFT AND DRIER
CONDITIONS. ONCE AGAIN WILL FAVOR THE GFS THIS CYCLE.

DEESE

CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 05-13

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN      92 2000     64 1963     69 1933     38 1960
                1935        1954
                1933
   KATL      90 1956     62 1963     70 1933     42 1960
                1911        1882        1905
                1905
   KCSG      92 2000     70 1971     73 2000     41 1960
                1967        1960
                1957
   KMCN      97 2000     64 1927     70 1933     42 1960
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE 5-10KT RANGE.
WILL SEE WIND GUST TO NEAR 20KT THIS AFTERNOON. NO PRECIPITATION OR
RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

01
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  43  78  55 /   0   0   0   0
ATLANTA         70  49  77  59 /   0   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     64  39  73  52 /   0   0   5   0
CARTERSVILLE    69  42  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        75  50  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     69  47  76  57 /   0   0   0   0
MACON           74  42  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
ROME            69  44  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  71  42  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  50  80  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...01