000
FXUS62 KFFC 130006 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
805 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE RETREATING WESTWARD AS A MODERATE SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE IS
MAINTAINING SOME MODERATE CAPPING INFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT
ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. RIGHT NOW IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
COVERAGE OR INTENSITY WILL BE TOO HIGH...HOWEVER...WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...MODERATE INSTABILITY MEANS AN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS THE TAIL OF
THE OHIO VALLEY SHORT WAVE BRUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO NORTH GEORGIA....PROGRESSING
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND LIFT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING.

20

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MOVEMENT OF FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA...AND BY FRIDAY THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE CLEARED ALL
BUT PERHAPS EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE NOT ONLY IN TEMPS BUT HUMIDITY...WITH A 5-7 DEGREE DROP
IN MAX TEMPS BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...LEADING INTO A FAIRLY
PLEASANT FATHERS DAY WEEKEND CONSIDERING IT IS MID-JUNE. RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FOR LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE ATLANTIC WE TRANSITION BACK INTO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME
REGIME...AT LEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK WHEN BOTH GFS AND ECMWF WANT TO
BRING A WEAK FRONT INTO THE AREA. OVERALL FEW CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST...SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

TDP

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED 405 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013/
A COLD FRONT WILL BE CLOSE TO CENTRAL GA AND MOVING S STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED. THE
FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE GFS
THE FASTEST...THE NAM NEXT AND THE EUROPEAN THE SLOWEST. PRECIP
CHANCES MOST LIKELY WILL HAVE ENDED FOR FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE
EUROPEAN HOLDS ONTO CHANCES OVER CENTRAL GA. SATURDAY IS DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY HELPS FOR HOLD ANY
CONVECTION AT BAY...HOWEVER NW FLOW ALOFT IS OVER THE AREA BUT
APPEARS TO HAVE ONLY MINIMAL MOISTURE. SUNDAY APPEARS ONE OF THOSE
DAYS WHERE YOU COULD GO EITHER WAY WITH 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE
NW HALF OR SO OF THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS AND SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL JUST HOLD
ONTO 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE NW. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES
RETURN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHORT WAVES TO
ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY GET INTO N GA FOR WEDNESDAY.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED AREAS
OF MVFR...WITH LOCAL IFR...VISIBILITIES IN FOG ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
THURSDAY MORNING BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. HOWEVER...THE KAHN TAF SITE IS
THE ONLY ONE WITH MVFR FORECAST. CHANCE POPS FOR TSTMS OVER NORTH GA
THU IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL BECOME LIKELY
OVER THE ATLANTA METRO TAF SITES AFTER 22Z. ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE AIRFIELDS WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY MAINLY AT 7KT OR LESS THROUGH 12Z...
INCREASING TO 10-14KT BY 16Z WITH GUSTS 18-24KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  93  67  87 /  30  60  30   5
ATLANTA         74  90  68  84 /  30  60  30   5
BLAIRSVILLE     67  86  58  81 /  30  50  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    70  90  64  85 /  30  50  20   5
COLUMBUS        75  96  73  90 /  30  40  50   5
GAINESVILLE     71  90  66  84 /  30  60  20   5
MACON           72  95  70  89 /  30  40  50   5
ROME            70  90  64  86 /  30  50  10   5
PEACHTREE CITY  70  92  64  86 /  30  60  30   5
VIDALIA         73  96  72  90 /  30  40  50   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....TDP
AVIATION...16