000
FXUS62 KFFC 152352 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 326 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013/
OVERALL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT CONSENSUS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. SFC
HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW FOR
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOOKS TO DAMPEN INTO THE UPPER ENERGY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THIS SYSTEM FROM
THE GULF LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR DIURNAL PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA. THE BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND MAY LINGER
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INTO THE EVENING. FORECAST INSTABILITY SUPPORTS
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THOUGH A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL
KEEP MAIN THREATS TO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR TEMPS...A GENERAL BLEND OF GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE WITH VALUES
AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BAKER

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED 326 PM EDT WED MAY 15 2013/
EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK...AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
CHANGES TO THE CURRENT GRIDS. MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE EXTENDED MODELS THAT
ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POPS AND WX GRIDS. MODELS
GREATLY DIFFER ON TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH LIGHTER THAN THE GFS. SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS LARGELY
APPLICABLE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

31

/ISSUED 345 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013/
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE LONG RANGE MODELS ON
TEMPS/CLOUD COVER INTO THE WEEKEND.

OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS TN AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE EAST AND
INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY. POPS SHOULD BE HIGHEST UP
NORTH...NEAREST THE ENERGY/BOUNDARY AND HAVE TRIED TO REFLECT THIS
IN THE GRIDS. OVERALL...CURRENT GRIDS HAD THE TREND HANDLED WELL AND
ONLY MADE VERY MINOR CHANGES.

THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE CENTERED MORE AROUND SKY COVER/MAX TEMPS.
THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND...THUS RESULTING IN LOWER MAX TEMPS. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT THAT THE COOLER TEMPS/THICKER CLOUD COVER WILL EXTEND
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PARTS OF THE CWA SO HAVE BUMPED UP
TEMPS/REDUCED CLOUD COVER FOR THOSE AREAS. ALSO BUMPED UP TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO
RETREAT NORTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US.

THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO IMPACT NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST WITH FEW-SCT060
DEVELOPING BY THE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE FORECAST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          61  85  60  84 /   0  20  20  30
ATLANTA         64  83  64  83 /   5  20  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     56  79  55  78 /   5  30  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    59  83  59  82 /   5  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        63  85  64  86 /   5  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     62  83  61  82 /   5  20  20  30
MACON           59  86  60  86 /   5  10  10  20
ROME            59  84  59  83 /   5  20  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  57  83  59  83 /   5  10  10  20
VIDALIA         63  88  65  87 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...11