Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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AXUS72 KFFC 291840
DGTFFC
GAC009-011-013-015-021-023-035-045-047-053-055-057-059-063-067-077-
079-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-129-
133-135-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163-167-169-171-175-187-
193-195-197-199-207-209-211-213-215-217-219-221-223-225-227-231-233-
235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-271-279-281-283-285-289-291-
293-295-297-301-303-307-309-311-313-315-317-319-162300-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
240 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

...DROUGHT INTENSITY WORSENS TO EXCEPTIONAL LEVEL IN FAR
NORTHWEST GEORGIA...
...A SHORT-TERM...SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINUES AND BECOMES
MORE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA INCLUDING THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA...

FOLLOWING SOME EARLY MONTH REPRIEVE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA
FROM TROPICAL STORM HERMINE BRINGING 2 TO 6 INCHES...ONLY ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN IN NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA IN
THE PAST 14 DAYS...WITH ONLY A FEW SPOTTY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS
RAINFALL OCCURRED MAINLY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH TWO FRONTAL SYSTEMS PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST...THE FIRST ON SEPTEMBER 18 AND THE SECOND ON
SEPTEMBER 26. OTHERWISE THE REGION HAS BEEN DOMINATED BY RIDGES
OF HIGH PRESSURE AND RESULTANT DRY CONDITIONS. THIS HAS ALLOWED
RAINFALL DEFICITS TO GRADUALLY WORSEN IN MANY LOCATIONS DURING
THE PAST SIX MONTHS.

DUE TO CONSISTENTLY ABNORMAL WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S
WITH HIGH EVAPORATION RATES...THE SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DECLINE
IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED LESS THAN 2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTH AND
WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS. CONSEQUENTLY...A
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT PREVAILS OVER NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA WHICH INCLUDES THE ATLANTA METRO AREA...AND AN UPGRADE TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT NOW EXISTS IN FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA. THE DRIEST
AREAS WERE IN A SWATH FROM LAGRANGE TO MCDONOUGH TO GREENSBORO AND
ALONG AND NORTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO MARIETTA TO DAHLONEGA LINE. THE
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA IS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF LAFAYETTE TO
DALTON. ELSEWHERE...ABNORMALLY DRY TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PERSIST EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SOME MINOR HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS TO WATER SUPPLY...STREAM FLOWS AND
GROUND WATER TABLES ARE CONTINUING TO OCCUR OVER MOST OF NORTH
AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA.  THIS INCLUDES THE LAKE LANIER POOL
ELEVATION WHICH HAS FALLEN OVER ANOTHER HALF FOOT DURING THE PAST
TWO WEEKS.

SEE HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FFC/RAINDEF FOR THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR IMAGE AND OTHER DROUGHT RELATED INFORMATION.

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CLIMATE IMPACTS

GENERALLY ZERO TO 90 PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER NORTH
AND WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST 14 DAYS. THE ISOLATED 2 TO 4
INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE ATLANTA AREA WERE CLOSER
TO 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.

LOCATION   TOTAL RAINFALL    NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
            LAST 180 DAYS    VALUE     FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

ATLANTA         16.60        24.17       -7.57         69%
ATHENS          20.79        21.84       -1.05         95%
COLUMBUS        14.07        21.70       -7.63         65%
MACON           12.61        22.03       -9.42         57%
CARTERSVILLE    18.58        23.61       -5.03         79%
NE ATLANTA      15.36        25.88      -10.52         59%
WEST ATLANTA    13.27        25.00      -11.73         53%
GAINESVILLE     15.14        25.19      -10.05         60%
PEACHTREE CITY  11.25        23.88      -12.63         47%
ROME            13.06        23.77      -10.71         55%

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RESERVOIRS/STREAM LEVELS

CURRENT LAKE LEVELS AT USACE PROJECTS WERE MAINLY BELOW SUMMER
POOL LEVELS FROM AROUND 3 FEET AT ALLATOONA TO 7 FEET AT CARTERS.
THE POOL LEVELS ARE PROJECTED TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE NEXT
FOUR WEEKS.

LAKE        SUMMER POOL  CURRENT LEVEL    DEPARTURE
                                           IN FEET
ALLATOONA       840          837.29         -2.71
CARTERS        1074         1066.86         -7.14
HARTWELL        660          654.36         -5.64
LANIER         1071         1064.48         -6.52
THURMOND        330          323.65         -6.35
WEST POINT      635          630.58         -4.42

AVERAGE STREAM LEVELS FOR THE PAST 7 DAYS WERE GENERALLY 1 TO 30
PERCENT OF NORMAL FLOW IN MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA DUE TO
AREAS OF RECENT RAINFALL OR THE LACK THEREOF.

PLEASE NOTE THAT CREEKS AND SMALLER RIVERS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY DUE TO
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN IF IT OCCURS.

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FIRE DANGER LEVELS

THE LATEST FIRE DANGER ASSESSMENT INDICATES AT LEAST A HIGH RISK
ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...WITH A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
RISK FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH GEORGIA AND EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS ASSESSMENT CAN CHANGE RAPIDLY DUE TO CHANGES
IN MOISTURE LEVELS AND RAINFALL RECEIVED.

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TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK

FOR OCTOBER...THE OUTLOOK FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

90 DAY OUTLOOK...FOR OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER...EQUAL CHANCES FOR
ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED.

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THIS DATA WAS FURNISHED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
COOPERATION WITH THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE GEORGIA STATE
CLIMATOLOGIST IN ATLANTA...THE GEORGIA ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
DIVISION...AND THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS. CURRENT FIRE DANGER
ASSESSMENTS WERE PROVIDED BY THE GEORGIA FORESTRY COMMISSION.

THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY
...OCTOBER 13 2016.

$$

03


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