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000
FXUS63 KFGF 172113
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
413 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...


- Scattered snow showers are forecast across the region Thursday
  through Friday. There is a 10% chance in impacts from brief
  visibility reductions under half a mile Thursday evening
  through Friday.

- Windy conditions will continue through Friday. There is a 70%
  chance for sustained winds greater than 30 mph Thursday and
  Friday within the Red River Valley into North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Large upper low over SK/MB will slowly migrate eastward into
Ontario through Friday. This places our area within the southern
half of its cyclonic flow aloft, filtering in cooler air while
maintaining increased wind field. With cooler air aloft, daytime
heating will contribute to weakly unstable air mass allowing
for shallow convection to develop driving the development of
showers over the region. Given the cooler temperatures, snow
and/or graupel is the expected dominate precipitation type. The
propagation of the upper level and attendant surface low keeps
the majority of more stratiform precipitation north of the
international border, keeping very little chance for widespread
accumulating snowfall north of our area within Canada.

Guidance from convective allowing models depicts the potential
of shallow winter convection during the day Thursday through
Friday. Weak instability within a saturated layer extending
into the DGZ would allow the opportunity for graupel/snow
pellets, but ultimately not very impactful given transient and
brief nature of this. That being said, closer to Thursday night
and Friday, guidance suggests areas of low level convergence
contributing to transient, semi-organized squall-like features
moving out of Canada into our area as an inverted
trough/reinforcing cold front crosses over the international
border. This opens up the possibility for quick reductions in
visibility under half a mile. While the chance for accumulation
is very low given warm ground temperatures, the potential for
sudden visibility reductions brings a 10% chance for winter
impacts.

Guidance also indicates tightened pressure gradient within a
deeply mixed boundary layer tapping into increased wind field
aloft extending over North Dakota into the Red River Valley
during the day Thursday. While there isn`t much change in wind
speed or direction within the mixed boundary layer, winds 27-35
mph should easily transfer to the surface, even if gusts are not
exceeding 45 mph. This allows for a 70% chance reaching wind
advisory criteria Thursday within eastern North Dakota into the
Red River Valley. Similar environment but perhaps not as clear
of mixing/transfer potential on Friday still allows a 50%
chance of seeing additional advisory-criteria winds.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Ceilings of MVFR to right at 1000 ft still hanging around at
the airports, with some -RA at KBJI. The lower ceilings will
gradually clear off from west to east this afternoon and
evening, with all TAF sites going VFR for a period overnight.
However, more MVFR ceilings will come down later tonight into
tomorrow for at least the northern TAF sites so the unrestricted
conditions will be short lived. Breezy northwest winds with
gusts up to around 25 to 30 kts this afternoon will settle down
a bit to around 10 to 15 kts this evening, but start ramping up
again late tonight into Thursday morning, this time from a more
west to southwesterly direction. Gusts up to around 30 kts will
again be possible in some areas.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR