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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 170348
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
848 PM MST THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPERATURES
WILL DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WARMING UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZY-TO-WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. IN ALL...NO MAJOR UPDATES
PLANNED THIS EVENING TO CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /310 PM MST/...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL APPROACH
NORTHERN AZ FRIDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
WILL PRODUCE INCREASINGLY WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
INCREASING HIGH AND MID CLOUDS FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH BRINGS IN COOLER AND MOISTER AIR
ALONG WITH SOME WEAK DYNAMIC LIFT. SHOWERS LOOK TO BE MOST LIKELY
OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST AZ FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL. NUMERICAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL FAVOR A DRY AND WINDY PATTERN FOR NORTHERN AZ WEDNESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS LIGHT
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO SW15-25G35KT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AFTER 17Z FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO
MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MOGOLLON RIM AND AREAS TO THE NORTH ON
FRIDAY. THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A DECREASE IN WINDS AS WELL AS A SHIFT IN DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LESS
WIND.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........KD/DJO
AVIATION.......KD
FIRE WEATHER...KD

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF