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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 190312
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
810 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY WINDS EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WINDS DECREASING BUT LIGHT BREEZES CONTINUING THIS
EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE WITH A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT NOCTURNAL WIND DECOUPLING TO
BE LESS PRONOUNCED TONIGHT COMPARED WITH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS DUE TO
INCREASED GRADIENTS...WHICH WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LIGHT SOUTHWEST
BREEZES OVERNIGHT...AND MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN GENERAL.
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH THESE SHORT TERM TRENDS
AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/315 PM MST/...THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE DOCE
WILDFIRE NEAR PRESCOTT ARIZONA IS CLEARLY SHOWN MOVING NORTHWARD IN
THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS PLUME TO SPREAD
SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR MOST AREAS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THURSDAY...SEE PRODUCT RFWFGZ FOR DETAILS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MONTANA WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
PRODUCING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER ARIZONA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM MONDAY ONWARD. FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS MAY BRING HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF A WILDFIRE WEST OF KPRC WHERE
LOCAL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. THE KPRC TERMINAL MAY BE
AFFECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS S-SW UP TO AROUND 10KT
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO 15-25KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KT AFTER
15Z...DECREASING AGAIN AFTER 03Z THURSDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WIND
GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SINGLE DIGIT MINIMUM
HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AND A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY. HAINES INDICES OF 5 AND 6
ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING ON WEDNESDAY FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST FOR
AZZ104>108-111>117-139-140.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ104>107-111>117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF