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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182220
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT HOT AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BREEZY WINDS EACH DAY. THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE DOCE WILDFIRE NEAR PRESCOTT
ARIZONA IS CLEARLY SHOWN MOVING NORTHWARD IN THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. EXPECT THIS PLUME TO SPREAD SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TO WINDY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR MOST AREAS IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THURSDAY...SEE PRODUCT RFWFGZ FOR DETAILS. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER.

OVER THE WEEKEND...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MONTANA WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
PRODUCING A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVER ARIZONA.

FOR NEXT WEEK...LONG RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD IN ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AND COLORADO. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP INCREASING MOISTURE
LEVELS IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA FROM MONDAY ONWARD. FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA
THIS MAY BRING HIGH BASED CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS EASTWARD ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HRS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15KT GUSTS AROUND 25KT THROUGH 02Z
WEDS...DECREASING TO 10KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...VERY DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PERSIST FROM TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HAINES
INDICES OF 5 AND 6 ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BOTH DAYS. LOOK
FOR SINGLE DIGIT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FOR AREAS BELOW 6000 FEET BOTH
AFTERNOONS. ON WEDNESDAY...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 40
MPH...AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THESE WINDS ARE DUE TO A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH
AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS APPROACH CRITICAL VALUES IN THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR AREAS ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING ON WEDNESDAY FROM NOON TO 7 PM MST FOR
AZZ104>108-111>117-139-140.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ104>107-111>117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BOHLIN
AVIATION.......JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF