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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 201044
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
340 AM MST MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH ARIZONA TODAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL WITH A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE BLACK MESA AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED. A DRY...WARMER...AND
BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES THIS MORNING WITH BROAD TROUGHING
STRETCHING ALL THE WAY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ONE LAST PIECE
OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO USHER IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR KEEPING MAX TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BLACK MESA/CHUSKA MOUNTAINS REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.

BRIEF RIDGING MOVES OVER THE STATE TUESDAY AS A STRONG CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST U.S. THE CLOSED LOW STAYS CENTERED
OVER THE PACIFIC NW THROUGH THE WEEK...LEAVING ARIZONA IN DRY AND
WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW AND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WILL RESULT IN WINDY PERIODS
ACROSS NORTHERN AZ. MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT WITH THE
TIMING OF THESE FEATURES...NOW FAVORING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS AS THE WINDIEST PERIODS.

THE DRY AND WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH LESS CERTAINTY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
WIND OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PROLONGED DRY...WARM...AND AT TIMES WINDY
WEATHER WILL HEIGHTEN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS. SCT CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 14 KFT MSL NORTH OF
A KPGA-KINW-KSJN LINE AND ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA 18-02Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ONE LAST DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WITH LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INCREASE THE WIND
OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AGAIN. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR
LIKELY. BREEZY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER
THE WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS STRONG AS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECT
MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES INDICES FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCS
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF