000
FXUS65 KFGZ 170318
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
815 PM MST SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MUCH DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCORDING TO SATELLITE BASED
PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATES...AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE GENERALLY
DROPPED AROUND 10 DEGREES SINCE 24 HOURS AGO.
CORRESPONDINGLY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEASTERN
AZ THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED RAPIDLY. HAVE MADE A MINOR SHORT
TERM UPDATE TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION/300 PM MST/...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LOW WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE ACROSS THE
WESTERN STATES. THE MAIN IMPACT OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL BE A DRY
AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE FIRE DANGER INCREASING THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA...POTENTIALLY RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SW10-15G20KT AFTER 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY AIR MOVING INTO
CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS DECREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR ALL BUT FAR
EASTERN ARIZONA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...A DRYING TREND WILL WORK WEST TO EAST THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY EACH AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES INDICES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST U.S. BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO
ARIZONA WHILE VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS BY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DJO/MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......DJO
FIRE WEATHER...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF