000
FXUS65 KFGZ 172229
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 PM MST FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
ARIZONA THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING UP
AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS CALIFORNIA
THIS AFTERNOON. A WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS
ARIZONA WITH RADAR PICKING UP VERY LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS WESTERN
COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY EVEN BE
REACHING THE GROUND OVER THE KAIBAB PLATEAU.

THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NEW MEXICO BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LESS
WIND OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A DRY
AND WINDY PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR ARIZONA LATE NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS EASTERN AZ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHILE CLEARING ACROSS WESTERN AZ. BASES OCCASIONALLY AS LOW
AS 12KFT MSL NORTH OF I-40. SFC WINDS SOUTH SOUTHWEST 10-25KT GUSTS
TO 35KT. FASTEST SPEEDS NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND DIMINISHING
ALL AREAS AFT 02Z SAT. AFT 18Z SAT...SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AOA
14 KFT MSL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-40. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. TODAYS CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA.
INCREASING INSTABILITY BUT MODEST MOISTURE COMBINE FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM SUPAI TO
FLAGSTAFF TO LUPTON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CRITERIA MAY BE NUDGED IN
SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...ELSEWHERE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE LESS THAN OBSERVED TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY....BUT MAY NUDGE CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ110-111-113-114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF