000
FXUS65 KFGZ 141627
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
925 AM MST FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE EASTERN ARIZONA BORDER AND MOGOLLON
RIM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER NORTHERN
ARIZONA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH VERY DRY AIR OVER THE NW
PORTION OF THE STATE...AND RESIDUAL MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF AZ...WITH BREEZY
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ANTICIPATED.

NEW MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE ON
SATURDAY...AND AM LOOKING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND ONCE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN ANALYZED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /405 AM MST/...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 NOTED FROM YUMA TO PHOENIX AND OVER TO
TUCSON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WESTWARD TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG S/WV EJECTS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING THE AREA WHERE
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST AS WELL. BY
SATURDAY...THIS PATTERN CONTINUES AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MINOR
GULF SURGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY AID IN STORM FORMATION
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AS A SERIES OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AOA 17 KFT MSL AND A FEW HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EXIST EAST OF A KFLG-K0V7 LINE BTWN 18Z-03Z...SFC
WIND GUSTS TO 45KT MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. OTHERWISE SFC WINDS SW
10-20KT BECOMING LIGHT AFTER 03Z SAT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE TWO WEATHER REGIMES THROUGH SATURDAY.
AREAS WEST OF A KAYENTA-PRESCOTT LINE WILL SEE CRITICALLY DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HAINES INDICES OF 6 PLUS
ALONG THE UTAH BORDER. EAST OF THE KAYENTA-PRESCOTT LINE...A FEW
HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH MAY DEVELOP FROM THIS
CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL GENERALLY BE POOR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS WEST OF A PAGE-PRESCOTT LINE...AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS BELOW
CRITICAL VALUES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE FROM 10 TO
15 PERCENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE ON
SUNDAY. THESE VALUES TREND DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........BAK/PETERSON
AVIATION.......OUTLER
FIRE WEATHER...OUTLER

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF