000
FXUS65 KFGZ 182212
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A PAIR OF WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS NORTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH MONDAY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I 40. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN A WARMING TREND STARTS
TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PLUS MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE
COMBING TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED VIRGA...LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THEN END. ON SUNDAY....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL BRING A SMALLER AREA OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AND WE EXPECT SHALLOW CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTORMS EAST
OF A LINE FROM KAYENTA TO WINDOW ROCK. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS STORE AS COOL AND DRY
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MONDAY BECOMES LIGHT WESTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES STARTING TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
AFTERNOON WINDS EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS SHOW ANOTHER LARGE PACIFIC LOW
WILL SETTLE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD. NORTHERN
ARIZONA WILL HAVE A DRY BUT STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
FLOW WILL ENSURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOON
WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS COULD BE EXCEED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS...STAY TUNED.

&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE 24 HR PERIOD. SCT-BKN CUMULUS WITH BASES AT OR ABOVE 13 KFT MSL
CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM NORTH....WITH ISOLD HIGH BASED
-TSRA/-SHRA...DISSIPATING BTWN 01Z-03Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SFC WINDS
POSSIBLE NEAR TSRA/SHRA. WEST WINDS DVLP AFT 18Z SUNDAY 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
AZ THROUGH SUNDAY WITH INCREASES IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS...AND ISOLATED
MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST ARIZONA.  MODERATE
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
BREEZY WEST WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHTER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. HAINES VALUES WILL RUN FROM MODERATE TO HIGH MAINLY FROM THE
MOGOLLON RIM NORTHWARD. DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WINDS AND HUMIDITIES WILL COME CLOSE TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&


$$


.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........DL
AVIATION.......TEC
FIRE WEATHER...TEC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF