000
FXUS65 KFGZ 171551
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
850 AM MST FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH PASSES OVER
ARIZONA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE UTAH BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMING UP AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&
.DISCUSSION...THE TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED OVER CALIFORNIA THIS
MORNING AND IS PUSHING A WIDE BAND OF CLOUDS ACROSS ARIZONA. WILL
UPDATE GRIDS FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. IT
WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /326 AM MST/...A TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
CA/WESTERN NV THIS MORNING WILL APPROACH THE STATE TODAY AND PASS
OVER NORTHERN AZ TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL LEAD TO BREEZY SURFACE WINDS AGAIN TODAY.
IN ADDITION...A RATHER ROBUST BAND OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN AZ EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORK FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH IN EASTERN AZ TO PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS...AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE KAIBAB PLATEAU REGION THIS AFTERNOON
TO SPARK A LIGHT SHOWER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL THEN
CONTINUE TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN AZ BORDER WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY...THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
SLIGHT COOLER TEMPERATURES...CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS...WILL BE IN
STORE BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY.

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY REBOUND. A DRY AND WINDY
PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE NEXT WEEK AS STRONG LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST U.S.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. BASES AS LOW AS 12KFT MSL NORTH OF I-40. SFC WINDS SOUTH
SOUTHWEST 10-25KT GUSTS TO 35KT. FASTEST SPEEDS NORTH OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND DIMINISHING ALL AREAS AFT 02Z SAT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS NAVAJO
AND APACHE COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

FOR SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH WINDS
DECREASING AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH LESS
WIND. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

EXTENDED FORECAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ110-111-113-114-116-117-139-140.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
AZZ110-111-113-114-116-117-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MAS/MCS
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL/DB

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF