000
FXUS65 KFGZ 141103
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
405 AM MST FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AND SATURDAY ALONG THE EASTERN ARIZONA BORDER AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK...INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA
WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 50 NOTED FROM YUMA TO PHOENIX AND OVER TO
TUCSON. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL ONCE AGAIN PUSH SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WESTWARD TODAY AND SATURDAY AS A STRONG S/WV EJECTS OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COASTLINE. THIS WILL BRING THE AREA WHERE
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER WEST AS WELL. BY
SATURDAY...THIS PATTERN CONTINUES AND MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MINOR
GULF SURGE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHICH MAY AID IN STORM FORMATION
OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AS A SERIES OF STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING WINDS AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. BTWN 18Z-03Z SAT...LOOK FOR SCT-BKN CLOUD BASES AOA 17 KFT
MSL AND A FEW HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A KFLG-K0V7 LINE. SFC
WIND GUSTS TO 45KT MAY ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS...OTHERWISE SFC WINDS SW
10-20KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL HAVE TWO WEATHER REGIMES
THROUGH SATURDAY. AREAS WEST OF A KAYENTA-PRESCOTT LINE WILL SEE
CRITICALLY DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAY AND NIGHT WITH BREEZY AFTERNOONS.
THIS AFTERNOONS HAINES INDICES ARE 6 PLUS ALONG THE UTAH BORDER.
EAST OF THE KAYENTA-PRESCOTT LINE...A FEW HIGH-BASED AFTERNOON AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHEST TERRAIN. OUTFLOW WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH MAY DEVELOP FROM THIS CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY WILL GENERALLY BE POOR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE DRY AND WARM
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS BELOW CRITICAL VALUES. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
SHOULD BE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE ON SUNDAY. THESE VALUES TREND DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........PETERSON
AVIATION.......DL
FIRE WEATHER...DL

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF