000
FXUS65 KFGZ 142151
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND
WARM WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WINDY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE BRUSHING NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL COOL TEMPERATURES
AND BRING A THREAT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH
BORDER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAIN AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE
STORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND MOSTLY PRODUCE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WITH ONLY A FEW SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME WILL SET UP OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA AS A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PAIR OF WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE
DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS FAIRLY WEAK BUT THE TIMING OF PASSAGE
WILL BE PERFECT TO ENHANCE DAYTIME WINDS. AS A RESULT...IT WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT WINDY AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH GUSTING TO 35 MPH.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN SYSTEMS
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT BY FRIDAY LIKELY TO SEE A
3 TO 6 DEGREE DROP AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
IN ANY CASE BE CAREFUL.

OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL COOL EVEN FURTHER ON
SATURDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON SATURDAY FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 20 MPH WILL BE THE NORM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-BKN CU/SC WITH BASES
FROM 15-20KFT MSL WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
UNTIL 02Z. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING...EXCEPT GUSTS TO
30KTS NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AFT 03Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN 17-19Z...BECMG 15-20KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30KT. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSER WILL BRING DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE DISTRICT BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY...
AND WHEN COMBINED WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...SOME AREAS MAY
APPROACH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY...BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY...ALONG
WITH A MODEST COOLING TREND AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.



.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........MCCOLLUM
AVIATION.......MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF